Read on Twitter
CEE countries: A case study in inevitability of SARS-CoV-2 spreading and seasonality - a THREAD
EU CEE countries did remarkably well in the 1st wave and were praised as champions. In red, and small Baltic countries in orange (we need to understand what's happening there)
1/
EU CEE countries did remarkably well in the 1st wave and were praised as champions. In red, and small Baltic countries in orange (we need to understand what's happening there)
1/
(... the analysis holds true with them, they are just marked with a different colour for clarity.)
Only one of them was in Top 13 EU countries re. deaths. BUT, in the second wave, they dominate the list
2/
Only one of them was in Top 13 EU countries re. deaths. BUT, in the second wave, they dominate the list
2/
Here we recognize our old friend, reversion to the mean. Tegnell was right: maraton and not sprint, most of the countries will converge:
3/
3/
But something strange is happening. CEE countries did not only catch up, they accumulated more deaths in total, 8 of them in top 13 now (remember, only 1 in the 1st wave):
4/
4/
So what's happening? There is one explanation coming to my mind. The dark number in the first wave was much higher, and Western countries in fact much more exposed than visible from this chart (confirmed infections in the first wave ...
5/
5/
and the first wave was less lethal due to seasonality (spring infection smaller IFR than autumn ifections). Now, why the Western countries were much more infected in the 1st wave? There is a very strong case for inlt. connectedness. I used a very imperfect measure ...
6/
6/
... DHL connectedness index. Still, it has a very large correlation. Imagine using a better description of conn. (land daily intl. migrations) and accounting for one-offs, like 1 m. Swedes going for holidays last week in Feb. (an old chart of mine, but you get the point).
7/
7/
So an explanation might be that before the epidemics withdrew in Spring, those nations which were spared in the 1st wave accumulated less immunity, and had to 'pay back' during more lethat Autumn/Winter. Unfortunately, it seems that's also happening to Germany ...
8/
8/
Look at the ICU beds used for Covid as a leading indicator of what is to happen:
(Please take a look at the thread: @BallouxFrancois @boriquagato @justin_hart @mgmgomes1 @freddiesayers @FatEmperor)
9/9
(Please take a look at the thread: @BallouxFrancois @boriquagato @justin_hart @mgmgomes1 @freddiesayers @FatEmperor)
9/9
10/9 This does not look nice at all, with today's data
