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Nuance - Even as an ardent opponent of Leninism, I think this day should be less one of celebration than of reflection, in that the USSR's dissolution ultimately provides us with one of the worst models for transitioning away from dictatorship in history. Cannot risk a repeat. https://twitter.com/TKoutsantonisMP/status/1342611542160809984
For most who lived through it, the Soviet collapse was a humanitarian disaster. It helped spark ethnic violence and genocide in the Caucasus, Balkans, and Central Asia - the legacy of which we still live with today, as evidenced by last month's brutal Nagorno-Karabakh war.
Meanwhile, millions died premature deaths as oligarchs looted post-Soviet states clean. This study in The Lancet found harsh neoliberal ''Shock therapy'' measures produced an estimated 7 million premature deaths from 1990 to 1995 in post-Soviet states. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-26671730072-5/fulltext#articleInformation
And in most places, Soviet dissolution did not produce democracy. Outside the Baltic, most post-Soviet states continue to languish under dictators and tyrants. Putin heads a dangerous gangster regime in Russia, while Central Asian dictatorships like Uzbekistan,
Tajikistan and Turkmenistan remain some of the most repressive places on Earth today. Yes, Soviet collapse could have been vastly more bloody and brutal considering the scale of the USSR's nuclear arsenal. But it was nonetheless a humanitarian catastrophe.
Ultimately, it probably would have been far better from a humanitarian point of view had the USSR persisted on in a voluntary confederation on far more democratic lines as envisioned by Gorbachev. Conservative figures like George H. W. Bush preferred this outcome to dissolution.
Ultimately, it probably would have been far better from a humanitarian point of view had the USSR persisted on in a voluntary confederation on far more democratic lines as envisioned by Gorbachev. Conservative figures like George H. W. Bush preferred this outcome to dissolution.
Given this, one can't help but wonder how differently things may have turned out had the US responded to Soviet calls for a ''Marshall Plan'' style injection of aid at the height of the crisis. Might genocide, oligarchy and autocracy have been avoided? https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1991-05-13-mn-1092-story.html
This history is instructive as we confront totalitarianism in China today. In the past, I've called for an end to CCP one party rule. I still believe this is the only thing that could halt genocide against Uyghurs and Tibetans and atrocities against Chinese and Hong Kongers.
But the dissolution of the USSR provides a terrible model for how a society can transition away from dictatorship, and I think it must be avoided at all costs if we are to avoid humanitarian disaster. That's why I think of all models for transition, Taiwan probably remains best.
Transitioning away from one-party rule in the 1980s, constitutional reform saw the establishment of multi-party competition within a democratic framework and the direct popular election of the President and all representatives in the National Assembly and Legislative Yuan.
Under this new constitutional order, the same KMT party that once presided over brutal one-party military dictatorship now legally competes in elections, and Taiwan's voters have both elected and removed them from government, enabling the peaceful transition of power.
Of course, this remains problematic. Under the old regime of one-party rule, the KMT amassed a vast business empire through corruption and many argue organized crime remains at the heart of the party. These days, it is close to the CCP and its business interests.
And it does remain galling and pretty sickening to see the same party responsible for the infamous February 28 Massacre and the decades of political repression that followed it with the White Terror continue to contest elections. Where is the justice in this?
But today, Taiwan is one of the world's most vibrant democracies, with a high level of human development and strong protections for human rights and civil liberties. It ultimately represents a tremendous success story for transition away from one-party autocracy,
providing us a model for moving away from totalitarianism without massive instability and humanitarian catastrophe. As we face down Xi Jinping's cruelties, let us celebrate this as the best possible future path for China. We need not repeat the mistakes of the USSR's collapse.
PS, I don't mean this thread as an attack on Tom - I think he's a great guy and appreciate any Labor politician willing to forcefully speak out against totalitarianism. Just wanted to contribute my own thoughts to the discussion
