Thread by @fpl_gents, How much better is it to use the triple captain chip in [...]

How much better is it to use the triple captain chip in a double gameweek?

Using Salah as an example, this {THREAD} explores how a single and double gameweek differs for him in terms of:

- Risk of blanking
- Expected outcome
- Higher than expected outcome

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There are some obvious benefits why using the TC chip in a DGW is good and they usually far outweigh the arguments for using it in a SGW.

I see this discussion in a brief manner sometimes but rarely in a structured one.

So I wanted to structure my thoughts on this. And try and think around the seemingly problematic fact that we might be tempted from time to time, and we consider to use a very easy SGW fixture for our TC chip.

One reason may be because we see others use it successfully in that manner. Most GWs in a season are SGW and a lot of casuals use it then. So there’s a risk that we get reminded more often of examples where someone triple capped in a SGW.

But if you’re serious about FPL, chances are that the only time you are considering the TC chip is in double gameweeks, or if a premium plays a bottom side. I wanted to compare these two examples and see if we are as rational as we think. We start with the likelihood of blanking.

If you know me you know I like to calculate the chance of an FPL return based on bookie odds. This gameweek Salah has the best chance of not blanking that I’ve ever seen. 82% to get a goal or an assist minimum, so only 18% to blank.

So this particular week, in GW15 where Salah faces West Bromwich you could consider the TC chip because he will give you a return 82% of the time. But if we compare it to Salah playing two normal games and the probability of two independent events occurring together, we multiply

the probability of the first event by the second. In tougher games he might average somewhere around 65% of an fpl return according to the bookies. So that means we multiply the probability of two straight blanks, 0.35 x 0.35 = 0.1225

So that equals 12%

I’s not going to be exactly 0.35 x 2, might be more like 0.4 x 0.3 since the fixtures differ in difficulty in a DGW, but the outcome is virtually the same.

GW15 chance of blank: 18%
DGW chance of blank: 12%

Now let’s look at what we might call a medium return or the expected outcome.

In this case we should look at an algo’s advice. We can see the average expected pts if this game was played thousands of times. E.g. Salah’s expected outcome in GW15 is 9 pts, and in DGW19 it’s 13 pts

The last thing would be to look at the ceiling and this is trickier. It’s obvious that in 90 minutes of football there are a finite amount of events that can take place. And more events/returns can take place in 180 min.

For instance Salah getting two hat tricks in back to back games is very unlikely but him scoring 6 in one game is nearly impossible.

Another thing to keep in mind is that not only the appearance points counts twice in a DGW, but so does the possible bonus points. There’s a chance of 3BP in one game and 6BP in two games. Together with the appearance points this difference represents the 5points/a goal.

These seems to me like the strongest arguments for a DGW TC chip. Let’s look at an example.

The chance of Salah scoring two goals or more vs WBA is 27%. His chance to score 1+ in each of the two DGW games could be 30%. But he could also score a brace in the first game of the DGW and then you would have a whole 90 minutes more to hope for even more to happen.

There’s one more way I want to tackle the chance of a haul question.

To see if TC Salah in GW15 is a good idea, we could look at his fpl record vs relegated teams to see how often his highest scoring game of the season - or close to it - is represented among those meetings. If it happens often then there’s an argument for using the chip in GW15.

Salah vs bottom 3 in 19/20:

NOR: GW1 - 12pts
BOU: GW16 - 13pts
WAT: GW17 - 16 pts

He was absent in every reverse fixture but hauled with exactly 2 returns plus bonus in the others. He only scored higher than 16 in one gw this season, where he scored 18 points.

Salah vs bottom 3 in 18/19:

HUD: GW9, GW36 - 8pts, 19pts
CAR: GW10, 35 - 15pts, 6pts
FUL: GW12, 31 - 8pts, 2pts

In two seasons vs relegated teams Salah has had 1 blank in 9 games which is 11% of games. His score vs HUD of 19 pts was his next biggest score that season.

On 5 ocassions over the course of these two seasons, he scored over 11 points, on 4 ocassions he scored below.

West Bromwich edition of 20/21 might not be as bad as these relegated teams are but they are comparable.

These numbers should be encouraging for those who are considering a TC chip in GW15. But it is still a suboptimal strategy if you consider the following:

The highest score in those 9 easy fixtures was 19 pts. You would be very happy with that kind of score in a single gameweek.

But his ceiling in a double gameweek could be as high as two times that even though it’s very unlikely.

Even if he scores just in once each of those two games and gets a few BP he has already matched his previous highest SGW score of 19.

I think we can agree that DGW has a slightly higher chance of all the good outcomes. That in and of itself makes it the best candidate. On top of that you have 2 appearance and 3 bonus points more available in the DGW. So my conclusion is to...

...TC a premium like Salah in a DGW. If he gets 19 points or more you should pat yourself on the back because that would be a score that is very high and very unlikely to happen in a SGW even though you expected him to haul.

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