Quick primer re. the "it's the virus, not the lockdowns" argument:

1. All 50 states had an identically timed drop in economic activity in March. Yes, that was the virus.

2. By June though there's an 80 pt spread between the most-open & least-open states. That's the lockdowns.

When you look at state-level unemployment data you get almost the exact same pattern.

Unemployment surges at the same time in all 50 states...but whether & when it drops again depends on the duration of the lockdown in that state.

What this means:

The initial decline in all 50 states was caused by the reaction to the virus outbreak, some of it panicked. But the recovery shows widespread variation. That variation correlates closely with the severity and duration of lockdowns.

The whole "it's the virus, not the lockdowns" argument at most holds for about 2 weeks in March. Then the lockdowns became the dominant factor.

Since about May onward, "it's the virus, not the lockdowns" has been a complete garbage take.

Addendum before anyone raises it: outbreak severity does not explain the state variation after May. The slowest rebound states include several places like CA that did not have a severe spring wave, and others like MA & NY where the wave ended by summer. But all had lockdowns.