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1/21 How does luck work?
I love @HowIBuiltThis by @guyraz.
But the fact that every episode ends with “How much of that was luck?” demonstrates the problem lies in the question.
Thread
I love @HowIBuiltThis by @guyraz.
But the fact that every episode ends with “How much of that was luck?” demonstrates the problem lies in the question.
Thread
2/21 This is obv not a knock on Guy. It’s entertaining for the listener to have some sort of ritual.
But there’s a reason why, when you got a PhD, so much time is spent on teaching one HOW to formulate the right question.
But there’s a reason why, when you got a PhD, so much time is spent on teaching one HOW to formulate the right question.
3/21 So what’s the problem here?
The problem is luck is ill-defined but the question makes it seem like it’s not.
So people answer a question that seems the same while it isn’t.
In reality, each person is answering a different question.
The problem is luck is ill-defined but the question makes it seem like it’s not.
So people answer a question that seems the same while it isn’t.
In reality, each person is answering a different question.
4/21 This is why in psychological research one asks multiple questions to measure one thing.
Then eventually you can get a feel for how well a given question correlates with the thing you’re trynna measure.
Then eventually you can get a feel for how well a given question correlates with the thing you’re trynna measure.
5/21 That’s why, as entertaining as it as, a million episodes in, the listener still can’t take away any meaning from all the answers.
6/21 So here’s how luck works.
Definition:
“Chance... something fortuitous that happens unpredictably without discernable human intention.”
See, Chase, Chance, and Creativity (Austin, 1978).
Popularized (in our community) by @pmarca and later @naval.
Definition:
“Chance... something fortuitous that happens unpredictably without discernable human intention.”
See, Chase, Chance, and Creativity (Austin, 1978).
Popularized (in our community) by @pmarca and later @naval.
7/21 i. Blind Luck. (Chance 1 in book)
This is fully accidental luck.
You’re in a supermarket and because of some promotion, you get a lottery ticket, and happen to win a prize.
This is fully accidental luck.
You’re in a supermarket and because of some promotion, you get a lottery ticket, and happen to win a prize.
8/21 ii. Forced Luck. (Book calls this chance 2).
Pure Luck + motion. This increases the P(serendipity). It’s smth my mentor @rorysutherland taught me.
“My daughters know that going out is a good idea cuz serendipity can occur. Foolish to expect a cost/ben analysis from them.”
Pure Luck + motion. This increases the P(serendipity). It’s smth my mentor @rorysutherland taught me.
“My daughters know that going out is a good idea cuz serendipity can occur. Foolish to expect a cost/ben analysis from them.”
9/21 See, Error in the Honeybee Waggle Dance Improves Foraging Flexibility by Okada, Ikeno & Kimura (2014).
10/21 “Our simulation also showed that precise information (0–5° error) yielded great success in finding feeders, but also caused failures at finding new feeders, i.e., a high-risk high-return strategy.”
See, https://www.younglingfeynman.com/essays/usererror
See, https://www.younglingfeynman.com/essays/usererror
11/21 This is the root of the variance in answers on HIBT. One founder interprets luck as Blind Luck, other assumes Guy’s referring to Forced Luck.
When OG @sgblank says “A founder is never lucky,” he specifically means Blind Luck.
When OG @sgblank says “A founder is never lucky,” he specifically means Blind Luck.
12/21 Here’s an example to make the distinction even clearer:
Outcome: Get a hole-in-1.
Sarah never gets started, she’s overwhelmed.
John says “I’m just gonna start.” He does 10 daily attempts for 10 years, while actively working on improving.
36524,22 total attempts.
Outcome: Get a hole-in-1.
Sarah never gets started, she’s overwhelmed.
John says “I’m just gonna start.” He does 10 daily attempts for 10 years, while actively working on improving.
36524,22 total attempts.
13/21 P(Hole in One) is roughly 8*10^(-5), so we’d expect around 3 hole-in-ones.
If John hits a hole-in-one during those 10 years, that’s Forced Luck.
That’s obv very diff from someone who’s never played golf and does the same thing first swing. That’s Blind Luck.
If John hits a hole-in-one during those 10 years, that’s Forced Luck.
That’s obv very diff from someone who’s never played golf and does the same thing first swing. That’s Blind Luck.
14/21 But people fail to point that out because, out of politeness, we’re used to just jumping into conversation straight away.
It feels awkward spending 5 minutes on definitions, steelmanning, and the right formulation of the question.
This is where some pure math helps you.
It feels awkward spending 5 minutes on definitions, steelmanning, and the right formulation of the question.
This is where some pure math helps you.
15/21 iii. Expertise Luck. (Chance 3 in book.)
The book shares the example of the discovery of penicillin.
While mold had fallen into his culture dish by chance, the fact that Fleming was able to draw implications from it wasn’t luck.
His expertise allowed him to capitalize.
The book shares the example of the discovery of penicillin.
While mold had fallen into his culture dish by chance, the fact that Fleming was able to draw implications from it wasn’t luck.
His expertise allowed him to capitalize.
16/21 iv. Idiosyncratic Luck (chance 4)
Luck that’s the result of you behaving in highly distinctive ways, esp. if they’re seemingly far removed from the area of discovery.
“Chance 4 comes to you, unsought, because of who you are and how you behave.”
Luck that’s the result of you behaving in highly distinctive ways, esp. if they’re seemingly far removed from the area of discovery.
“Chance 4 comes to you, unsought, because of who you are and how you behave.”
17/21 Think: Seemingly foolish/unproductive idiosyncratic behavior leading to happy accidents.
(Altamirage in literature.)
For some reason this has erroneously become “reputational luck,” in the mainstream.
(Altamirage in literature.)
For some reason this has erroneously become “reputational luck,” in the mainstream.
18/21 E.g. Feynman seeing some guy in the Cornell cafeteria throwing a plate in the air. He was drawn to the relationship btwn the wobble and the red Cornell medallion.
Fooling around with that problem led to “the whole business that I got the Nobel prize for.”
Fooling around with that problem led to “the whole business that I got the Nobel prize for.”
19/21 Had to leave stuff out for brevity.
Want more?
Here’s the full essay inc. notes and references here https://www.younglingfeynman.com/essays/luckframework
Esp. recommend the paper on serendipity in the references!
Want more?
Here’s the full essay inc. notes and references here https://www.younglingfeynman.com/essays/luckframework
Esp. recommend the paper on serendipity in the references!
20/21 And for carved in bark ancient aphorisms on business, delivered to your home by an Athenian messenger [1], go here:
http://Www.YounglingFeynman.com/subscribe
[1] Kay fine, they’re awesome essays on entrepreneurship sent via email... Can you just be cool—just once?!
http://Www.YounglingFeynman.com/subscribe
[1] Kay fine, they’re awesome essays on entrepreneurship sent via email... Can you just be cool—just once?!
21/21 Don’t take my word for it though, https://twitter.com/joshpitzalis/status/1342420724250636289?s=20
