1) President Trump’s video Tuesday night caught everyone on Capitol Hill and many in his administration off guard. The president ordered changes to the $2.3 trillion combination COVID relief bill and government spending package.

2) But after months of negotiations, it’s unclear if Congress can re-tackle this issue right away.

And, if the President doesn’t sign the bill soon, there could be a government shutdown at 12:00:01 Tuesday morning.

3) Congress approved a 4th stopgap measure last week to run through Monday at 11:59:59 pm et. The big bill funds the government through September 30, 2021. But it would take time to assemble and enroll the mammoth 5,000-plus page bill.

4) Congress just shipped the bill to the President late yesterday. The President was absent for months of painstaking negotiations. The President often argued he wanted a bigger bill. But it was clear that such a massive bill wasn’t something Republicans in Congress could stomach

5) Some proposals dipped as small as $300 billion. Eventually, the sides settled on $900 billion.

Then the President threatened to blow all of this up. He demanded Congress approve $2,000 stimulus checks.

6) Republicans balked at even $1,200 in direct payments. That’s why House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) was more than willing to draft a bill providing $2,000 checks. The House will vote on that plan Monday afternoon or evening.

7) Pelosi’s maneuver will dare Republicans to oppose the plan. Many Republicans oppose direct payments at all. Mr. Trump also objected to marrying the COVID bill with the big government spending plan. But this was a move devised weeks ago by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell

8) It’s typical for Congress to blend together major bills of this nature. Especially at the end of the year or at the end of a Congress. This is the only bill which can move. The term of art on Capitol Hill is “logrolling.”

9) Leaders assemble the bill into a gigantic log and roll it down the hillside. Either you’re “behind” the log, or, if you’re down below, prepare to be run over.

Logrolling is a brutish way to legislate. But often, it’s the only way to get things done.

10) Lawmakers will go along with the bill because there’s more in there which they like compared to what they oppose. Moreover, the House and Senate probably lacked the votes to pass both the government spending plan and the COVID bill separately.

11) That necessitated latching them together. In fact, the House initially split part of the spending plans into two bill and then combined it with the coronavirus package. That may have meant the House never passed anything.

12) Congressional leaders do what they need to do to pass big bills like this. Otherwise, no COVID stimulus. And otherwise, a government shutdown. It’s all about engineering the right legislative cocktail to secure the necessary votes to pass the bill.

13) And that was certainly the case with this plan, marshaling 359 yeas in the House and 92 in the Senate. It doesn’t get much more bipartisan than that.

14) And what about all of that money for the Kennedy Center and Sudan and Pakistan? One of the 12 spending bills in this measure covers the State Department and Foreign Operations. In the late winter or spring, the President sends a “budget request” to Congress.

15) The money allocated in that part of the bill is consistent with what the Trump Administration asked for. In other words, Congress assembled the legislation in concert with the President’s spending request. In other words, he asked for this money.

16) House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) helped negotiate the final version of the bill. The California Republican voted for the bill. Now McCarthy is imploring the House to break apart the State and Foreign Operations part from the rest of the plan.

17) But revisiting parts of the bill is the ultimate can of worms. In other words, the bill functions as one – or it doesn’t. Messing around with the bill now could depress the vote tally. Everyone will demand they insert their pet provision into the bill or take something out.

18) Congress has attended this holiday dance with the President before.

In December, 2018, lawmakers thought they had an agreement with the President to fund the government just before Christmas.

19) The mood was so light on Capitol Hill that senators even sang Christmas carols in the rear of the Senate chamber as the body voted to fund the government, averting the crisis.

But by morning, the President announced his opposition. The gov't closed for more than a month

20) The possibility of a shutdown this time is very real. The House plans to move an interim spending bill on Monday night just hours before the government runs out of cash. But the Senate isn’t even scheduled to meet until Tuesday.

21) Fox has seen no movement by the Senate toward changing its schedule. And it’s unclear if the President would sign anything at this point, even if both the House and Senate were to pass a bill.

22) As I reported on Tuesday night, the President never outright said he would veto the bill. And, he may not have to.

23) The Constitution requires the President to sign or veto a bill within 10 days – Sundays excluded. But, the COVID/government funding bill goes to the President right before the end of the Congressional session. It’s possible the President can essentially ignore the bill.

24) This is called a “pocket veto. The President essentially stuffs the bill “in his pocket.” The 116th Congress ends January 3rd. The President can essentially run out the clock. It’s like the bill never happened.

25) So, the House returns on Monday, December 28 to tackle three things: Override the President’s veto of the defense bill. Vote on $2,000 in direct payments. And, a vote on an interim spending bill of unknown length.

26) We expect the House Rules Committee to meet at some point on Monday, teeing up debate on the $2,000 direct payment checks. We don’t expect any major floor action until 3 pm et or later. Most of what the House does on Monday will bleed into the evening hours.

27) But the Senate’s not slated to meet at all until Tuesday, December 29. That’s been in the plans for a few days. And that’s why there could be a government shutdown. The earliest the Senate could tackle an interim spending bill is Tuesday.

28) It’s not clear that the Senate will actually consider the veto message on December 29th. It could with the cooperation of all senators. There is some resistance, notably from Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY).

29) By the book, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) could have to file cloture to end debate on the veto override on Tuesday. That takes two days for the actual veto override vote to “ripen.”

30) If the Senate has to run all of the parliamentary traps, the veto override vote may not happen until Thursday, December 31 (yes, you read that correctly).

But a time agreement could expedite the timing.

31) If the House and Senate both vote to override (two-thirds vote needed), the defense bill becomes law over the objections of the President.

Veto overrides are rare. This would be only the 112th veto override in American history.

32) Also, it does not appear that the Senate has the appetite to handle the $2,000 bill from the House on direct payments. In addition, it’s unclear if such a plan could even get 60 votes and if they would try to jump all of the parliamentary hurdles.