[1/n] Excellent work by @_nickdavies & @cmmid_lshtm. Personal initial policy & econ implications, to be quantified:

1. £ for all-UK ~6wk T4 *now* +/- temp borders < £ undetected B117 proliferation

2. £ to buy & dist more vax < £ of H1 hospitalisation + deaths exceeding 2020 https://twitter.com/lshtm/status/1342067088530276357

[2/n] best time to act is always yesterday. True for natl stay-at-home order in March, and it has been true over & over again.

Waiting 1wk after PM address of 16/3 cost ~20k lives in 2020: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-12-22-COVID19-Report-41.pdf

By 23/3 order, UK missing ~99% of cases: https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.18.2000632

[3/n] latest @cmmid_lshtm study finds B117 ca50-74% more transmissible than prev nCov-2019 (data sparse-ish and noisy, more precision not possible).

Mercifully no evidence so far of worse clinical severity.
“changing contact patterns cannot explain the growth of [new variant]”

[4/n] @mugecevik has an excellent thread synthesising evidence to date on B117 or VUI or VOC -202012/01. Go read the whole thing, but v impt pt below that UK’s unparalleled ONS genomic surveillance finds strain is outcompeting all others in London+SE

Thx @SedonaSweeney for tip https://twitter.com/mugecevik/status/1341094867074691073