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Thread:
Why does
need a portfolio of vaccines, instead of buying just one?
1. No one company can supply everything we need. If any single company can do that, then every country in the world will race for its supplies. Unfortunately, is not rich enough to win.
1/11
Why does
need a portfolio of vaccines, instead of buying just one?1. No one company can supply everything we need. If any single company can do that, then every country in the world will race for its supplies. Unfortunately,
is not rich enough to win.1/11
2. It’s dangerous to depend on one company only. E.g. a shortage of raw ingredients might disrupt their supply chain, a hurricane might damage their factories, or the company may raise prices as they have monopoly and leverage. Or the vaccine isn’t approved by NPRA.
2/11
2/11
3. The Covid virus will likely mutate over time. This is called “antigenic drift”.
If we have only one vaccine and it doesn’t work against the mutation, we lose the entire supply.
Multiple vaccines spread our risk against mutations.
3/11
If we have only one vaccine and it doesn’t work against the mutation, we lose the entire supply.
Multiple vaccines spread our risk against mutations.
3/11
4. Time is crucial. We should aim for herd immunity ASAP. Herd immunity ASAP reduces disease & death, and risk of antigenic drift.
If we buy from one company only, supplies may arrive over 2-3 years. If we buy from multiple companies, supplies could arrive in one year.
4/11
If we buy from one company only, supplies may arrive over 2-3 years. If we buy from multiple companies, supplies could arrive in one year.
4/11
5. A strategy for multiple vaccines provides a stronger negotiating position. We can ask for tech transfers, localise production in Malaysia, better prices.
Also, we are not held hostage by one company, or hostage to geopolitics or superpower rivalry.
5/11
Also, we are not held hostage by one company, or hostage to geopolitics or superpower rivalry.
5/11
6. A diverse vaccine portfolio can be beneficial.
Our vaccines have different ways of working (or “mechanisms of action”), different storage/handling conditions, different delivery schedules & different safety/efficacy profiles. That give us flexibility to deploy.
6/11
Our vaccines have different ways of working (or “mechanisms of action”), different storage/handling conditions, different delivery schedules & different safety/efficacy profiles. That give us flexibility to deploy.
6/11
A vaccine portfolio is the best possible option for now. There is no “single best vaccine with unlimited supplies & cheap price”. Nor can produce our own (yet).
There are problems to the portfolio approach, of course. But we should mitigate instead of criticise.
7/11
now. There is no “single best vaccine with unlimited supplies & cheap price”. Nor can produce our own (yet).There are problems to the portfolio approach, of course. But we should mitigate instead of criticise.
7/11
The problems to mitigate:
a) Who gets which vaccine?
b) Should we provide choice, & how?
c) Administrative costs of managing 6-10 companies.
But these are Good Problems to have. Frankly, they’re Luxury Problems.
Better than “we have no vaccines”.
8/11
a) Who gets which vaccine?
b) Should we provide choice, & how?
c) Administrative costs of managing 6-10 companies.
But these are Good Problems to have. Frankly, they’re Luxury Problems.
Better than “we have no vaccines”.
8/11
This thread only weighs “many vaccines vs one vaccine”.
Other important issues are discussed elsewhere: NPRA approvals; long-term data; new mRNA vs old inactivated virus technology; price & transparency.
We should consider the universe of issues, not just fixate on one.
9/11
Other important issues are discussed elsewhere: NPRA approvals; long-term data; new mRNA vs old inactivated virus technology; price & transparency.
We should consider the universe of issues, not just fixate on one.
9/11
There are also assumptions: Supplies will be delayed anyway. The Covid virus will mutate over time. Covid might become endemic, and we’ll need multiple rounds of vaccinations (with new funding rounds etc). pursues our own vaccine manufacturing in parallel.
10/11
pursues our own vaccine manufacturing in parallel.10/11
In Summary: a portfolio of vaccines is the best possible option now. In a very imperfect Covid world, a portfolio is the least imperfect solution.
Now, we should work to mitigate & resolve the portfolio’s newly-created Luxury Problems.
11/11
Now, we should work to mitigate & resolve the portfolio’s newly-created Luxury Problems.
11/11
