THREAD on #Ethiopia & region IV: #Eritrea withdraws from #Tigray, further instability looms

After repeated anecdotal information that Eritrean soldiers who took part in #EthiopianCivilWar had returned home, there are credible indicators Asmara may have pulled out its forces.

We won’t know that if these withdrawals apply to all Eritrean mechanized, infantry & specialized units & advisors until there is adequate opening up of Tigray; & that is unlikely to happen until Eritrean presence ends or kis reduced to imperceptible/deniable levels.

Not clear if withdrawal means #Eritrean & #Ethiopian leaders r satisfied with #TPLF's ‘liquidation’ or if Asmara is cutting losses to preserve gains. Pr. Isaias could be recalling troops to secure home front from internal challenge, threats TPLF still poses, & destabilization.

Whatever the case, #Ethiopia appears to be where Isaias wants it: WEAK! Without large Eritrean command/combat personnel & technical knowhow, federal troops & regional militias unlikely to maintain territorial gains so far made much less turn them into political/security returns.

It is not coincidence TPLF's been actively counterattacking lately & there seems to be intense fighting in parts of region. Loss of territory freed #TPLF of administrative & other responsibilities, enabling it to attack at time/place of its choosing & cause substantial harm.

#Addis had been stretched too thin & took added burden in #Tigray. Recent dev'ts don't promise improvement: dozens of small-scale conflicts, violent attacks against civilians & open border clashes with Sudan have deleterious effect on Ethiopia’s effective governance/stability.

Thus, what prompted #Eritrea's withdrawal from #Tigray may be of little immediate policy significance; that it has withdrawn or is doing so, however, is consequential. Developments in the next weeks likely to reveal full extent of its implications. I've no sides to this war.

I only want to see: 1 safety/security of innocent civilians from brunt of the conflict; 2 success of @AbiyAhmedAli for Ethiopia's peace/prosperity; 3. #Eritrea immediately & completely withdrawn b/c it has its own worse domestic problems & more. How can that be too much to ask?

@DrWorkneh @igadsecretariat @SudanPMHamdok @AUC_MoussaFaki @AUChair2020 @AU_PSD @AUC_DPA @antonioguterres @LindaT_G @AmbassadorRice @ABlinken @JosepBorrellF @EUSR_Rondos @ZachVertin @RAbdiAnalyst @LahraSmith1 @TomGardner18 @japanizar