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watching the dream response video now
"I did not delete any evidence"
this is just like literally false by his own admission lol
this is just like literally false by his own admission lol
"no statistically significant evidence" lmao
"the expert found that the math was off" im dying
oh my god don't subtract the denominators that is a TERRIBLE way to compare probabilities what
im willing to call the gold block comparison accurate except that like we weren't off lol
it turns out that minecravenger didn't investigate *literally every minecraft player ever* and choose the luckiest one actually
I don't think it is our fault if someone interpreted "in the minecraft speedrunning community" as "anyone ever". We probably should've specified "on stream" in this paragraph though.
what the fuck? we did not include "the odds dream is streaming at a given time" as a factor in our analysis???????
we did correctly account for trade stopping
does dream not realize we ask for recordings of attempts from people who do runs offline
I think 10 was a mistake. There's problems with 37, but as I've said using 37 and would make no real difference.
this is an entirely different point why is it on the screen at the same time
a a a the expert's completely flawed examples
I think emphasizing the amount of bias in favor of Dream is something we needed to do in order to show how absolutely absurd the odds are and to show our investigation was impartial. 1/7.5 trillion is like, misleading high, honestly.
*sigh* there is a difference between PDF and CDF
YES! SOMEONE PROBABLY WILL WIN THE LOTTERY IF A LOT OF PEOPLE PLAY IT! That is why we computed the probability ANYONE wins the lottery instead of just going with the damn 1 in 20 sextillion number!
(anyone playing this particular lottery, which you aren't if you're not on stream to be witnessed, if I need to make that clear)
I can believe that there are thousands of players who have experienced 1 in 100 million bartering luck. I cannot believe that there are any who, while streaming minecraft speedruns, have experienced 1 in 80 billion bartering luck.
I think what geo said in the video was somewhat misleading but "I did not delete evidence" is definitely also pretty misleading
also I clearly ask for a folder in that image which Dream did not provide. so, no, he did not provide everything we asked for. for plausibly legitimate reasons, yes, but he did not provide it.
also "my entire 1.16 version" = "specifically my 1.16 mod config folder" ????????????????
the hell????
the hell????
I love the "as far as we know"
editing metadata is easy???
did he actually just equate fabric and fabric api even though he has stated he knows the difference
why would we mention that many people think fabric api is required for sodium if we know dream was not one of those people????
I'm kinda? willing to grant the cherry-picking thing? I think "dream has the fabric api despite knowing it isn't required" is somewhat stronger evidence he cheated than "logs don't list any other mods" is evidence he didn't, but maybe we should've mentioned it anyways?
compared to the math it is all so weak as to not even be worth really considering though
"sister team" ?
"harassing"? I wouldn't use that word? But whatever.
We wouldn't use incorrect formulas because we're biased against him lol. I'm still unsure what's going on with Dream's claim about a mod who doesn't believe he cheated. Either Dream is lying, someone's lying to Dream, or someone's lying to us.
dream's reasoning that the math is off is pretty sensible given he's innocent
dream called matthew a mod?
If someone got a streak of luck like dream's on the speedrun client we would still reject the run probably
(if we do our job right no one will ever get a streak of luck like dream's on the speedrun client)
