Each Playoff Contender's Path to a Super Bowl AFC Editiion (a thread) RTs and cooments are already appreciated

So for the teams I'm including every team with a chance to make it besides LV This thead is obviously focusing on just the AFC and I'll do a NFC one later
- KC
- Buf
- Pit
- Ten
- Ind
- Cle
- Mia
- Bal

Starting with the Chiefs. Kansas City is the favorite and it's easy to see why. Mahomes is playing at an absurd level. The weaponry is stacked and they're so explosive that they can make up for mistakes they make that other teams simply cannot. I think their path is simple

Keep up the pace you're on now and they have a very simple path to the Super Bowl.

Next up we have Buffalo. I think they're one of the few teams that can match KC's explosiveness. They're offense is 4th in EPA/Play and 6th in DVOA. I think if anything it's gonna come down to can this defense play well and can Allen play on par w/ Mahomes. It's a tough task but

if you wanna get through KC, that's what you have to do.

Next up is Pittsburgh. This team is on a skid rn but I still think they're a good team. The problem is since the Ravens game the offense has legitimately been one of the worst in the NFL and Big Ben has been one of the worst QBs in the NFL.

IMO their path is going to have to come in two ways. Either the defense is gonna have to hard carry them if the offense cannot step up. Or Big Ben and this offense has to come back and play at a competent level. If they're able to do that and this D can play elite again, a path

is there. The question is, will it happen.

Up next is the Tennessee Titans. I would say they can use a similar formula to last year, but there's one problem. Their defense has heavily regressed. The D ranks 27th in EPA/Play and 28th in DVOA. You can also simply see from the eye test. They're going to have to rely on Tanny

more, or this D will magically have to progress into better than what they are now. Derrick Henry is gonna get his touches and yards, but in the ends they're gonna have to rely on Tannehill being able to do enough in shootouts to find they're way to Tampa.

Well let's hop over to their division rival, the Colts. This is a team with a great defense and has Phillip Rivers playing at a high level. I think their path is gonna come down to this D. If their Defense is able to play at a good enough level they can be dangerous due to

their offense being pretty safe and stable.They're gonna be able to move the ball and they're gonna be able to score. If this D can play great and this DL can dominate like they've shown they can, they can make the Super Bowl. I honestly believe they're one of the best equipped

teams to beat Kansas City

Next up is Cleveland. It comes to three things for me, Baker sustaining this level of play. The running game playing well in Playoff football and the defense playing better.
Since week 7 Baker has led the NFL in EPA/Play. Do I legit think he's been the best QB for that stretch,

no but it shows how high a level he's been playing. If he's able to sustain that and this ground game gets going, this offense is about to be dangerous. In the end I think it's gonne come down to this defense. It ranks 24th in EPa/Play and DVOA. If they're able to step up

and this offense can maintain it's form, they could be dangerous come January.

Up next we have the Dolphins. I think they're best chance is this D playing at an even higher level or Tua stepping upThis D is rnaked 4th in EPA/Play and 11th in DVOA, but 6th in weighted DVOA. It's very good. If this offense can step up their play the D can maintain form. A

path exists

Up next is what IMO is the team that no one wants to play and eerily remeniscent of last year's Titans, the Baltimore Ravens. This team comes down to one man... Lamar Jackson. Ever since Lamar Jackson got back from COVID, this has been the best offense by EPA/Play in the NFL

They're getting back to what worked last year. They're ot forcing Lamar to throw a bunch to these bad weapons and it's fucking working. NO ONE WANTS TO PLAY THIS TEAM. I think teams are rooting for Miami bc of how hot they are If Lamar Jackson is able to step up in the playoffs

thos Ravens team can beat anyone. It may be overreactionary after beating up on three not so great defenses but besides KC and Buffalo they probably have the highest upside

If I am ranking paths it goes (3-7 are all inanely close)
1. KC
2. Buffalo
3. Indy
4. Tennessee
5. Baltimore (mainly bc they're gonna have the toughest path)
6. Pittsburgh
7. Cleveland
8. Miami

But none of it matters because Jets > Chiefs therefore the Jets are you AFC champions