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Many in NH regard Chris Sununu as an electoral behemoth. While he is strong, his gubernatorial performances haven’t been that much better than average. Starting with a look at his EC victories, he’s obviously strong in the Seacoast.
Given that 2012 was a different time, and 2014 was an R wave, his performances are really strong, but not stellar.
There’s not much to take away here electorally except that the district was a lot redder back then, and the size of his victories largely depended on that.
There’s not much to take away here electorally except that the district was a lot redder back then, and the size of his victories largely depended on that.
Looking at his 2016 GOP GOV primary win, it was a lot closer than it should’ve been.
Frank Edelblut was a FIRST-TERM STATE REP/accountnet from a small town, who almost beat Chris Sununu, 3-term Executive Councilor, son of a former governor, and brother to a former US Senator. This should not have been close. Instead, Edleblut did better...
than the mayor of the largest city in the state, a 3-term state senator who later became NHGOP Chair, and almost beat Sununu.
Edleblut later became NH Ed. Comm., despite having no experience in education, but enough about him.
Edleblut later became NH Ed. Comm., despite having no experience in education, but enough about him.
Sununu faced fellow Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern in the general election. Sununu won by 2%. Max “the party switcher” abramson garnered 4% of the vote, about 30j votes. The difference between Sununu and Van Ostern was about 17k. Given that Hillary Clinton almost...
lost NH, had she had done better, and Abramson not ran, Van Ostern might’ve been Governor. Van Ostern did very well up north, but lost a tot of ground to Sununu down south. Rye, a safe Clinton town home to ~5k was Sununu+1.5.
NH GOV 2016 was Sununu’s race to lose, and he almost lost it. Twice.
Skipping to 2018, Sununu only beat Molly Kelly, a state senator representing parts of the Monadnock region, by 7%. Kelly, despite having the backing of many prominent Democrats, didn’t campaign much, and lackluster campaign. Kelly, again did better in the rural areas than...
in the urban and suburban areas. To beat Sununu, the NHDEMs needed to run a candidate than could keep up with Sununu in the suburbs and not get demolished in the rural areas.
They thought they had found that in Dan Feltes, a state senator from Concord.
As many know, NH is infamously anti-tax. We have a “tradition” known as the pledge. More on that below:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Pledge_(New_Hampshire)
As many know, NH is infamously anti-tax. We have a “tradition” known as the pledge. More on that below:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Pledge_(New_Hampshire)
Feltes had championed a PFML proposal that the GOP lambasted as an income tax. As many know, there’s not an effective response to that. Feltes instead tried to tie Sununu to Trump. It didn’t work.
Polls had shown Feltes losing ~65-30. Many, including myself, thought it would be closer, but few expected Feltes to win. As it turns out, the NH polls were almost spot-on.
Sununu is eyeing a senate run at some point. He likely would challenge Hassan. I’ve seen many “if Sununu runs, it’s lean/likely R” takes, and to that, I’d say probably not. If he runs, it starts out as a pure Tossup. If he doesn’t, it’s Lean/Likely D. Hassan
Hassan was a former governor, and she won in 2014 as the GOP flipped the state house and the EC, and increased their senate majority.
Circling back to something I touched on earlier, NH Governors win by large margins usually. Sununu’s 2016 win was the smallest win since 1992, and the only one nearly as close was when Lynch beat inc. Governor. Benson in 2004.
Here is the GOP & DEM wins sorted by largest to smallest. As you can see, Chris Sununu’s wins are all over the place, and his 32% win is the 5th largest out of the last 15 elections.
Given a visualization, Sununu’s wins aren’t super impressive.
He’s still a tough opponent, but not the behemoth people want him and think of him to be.
He’s still a tough opponent, but not the behemoth people want him and think of him to be.
