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Been thinking a lot about how to measure the extent of the SF exodus, and how to understand what's happening. Actual data to back this claim is hard to come by as an individual, but I'd like Twitter to help me spitball...
One data source points in the direction of a big change: the rental market. According to Zumper, "As of November 2020, the median 1-bedroom price in San Francisco has decreased 22.6% from a year ago"
https://www.zumper.com/blog/state-of-the-san-francisco-bay-area-renter-2020/
https://www.zumper.com/blog/state-of-the-san-francisco-bay-area-renter-2020/
Prices seem to have dropped a bit for residential real estate, but barely. If anything, they just didn't rise as expected https://www.zillow.com/downtown-san-francisco-san-francisco-ca/home-values/
Zumper talks about inflow/outflow, but without hard numbers and cite their source as themselves, which is not very useful. https://www.zumper.com/blog/state-of-the-san-francisco-bay-area-renter-2020/
This article from @publiccommentsf has been making the rounds. They report ~90k address changes out of SF since March but, conveniently backing the narrative, don't mention how many address changes flowed in.
Is this raw data published anywhere? https://www.publiccommentsf.com/post/u-s-postal-service-data-suggests-significant-population-decline-in-san-francisco
Is this raw data published anywhere? https://www.publiccommentsf.com/post/u-s-postal-service-data-suggests-significant-population-decline-in-san-francisco
What's the unit we care about. We surely care about net numbers, not gross, but.... Is it households or individuals? Specific neighborhoods or the city as a whole? What about the whole region?
This reminds me of the population vs counties vs state questions from US elections.
This reminds me of the population vs counties vs state questions from US elections.
A single data point for 2020 isn't that helpful either. We need comps. What's the trend? What's the turnover for SF and other cities?
According to Quartz, the average annual turnover of population in SF the past few years was 4.8% inflow, 4.1% outflow. https://qz.com/1773381/these-are-the-most-transient-places-in-the-us/
According to Quartz, the average annual turnover of population in SF the past few years was 4.8% inflow, 4.1% outflow. https://qz.com/1773381/these-are-the-most-transient-places-in-the-us/
According to LinkedIn, hiring is down YoY, but recovering.
https://www.linkedin.com/jobs/blog/linkedin-workforce-report-december-2020-san-francisco-ca
https://www.linkedin.com/jobs/blog/linkedin-workforce-report-december-2020-san-francisco-ca
Also, fun fact, Miami is not even in the top 10 list of cities where people are moving to, no matter what your friendly neighborhood VC has to say. https://www.linkedin.com/jobs/blog/linkedin-workforce-report-december-2020-san-francisco-ca
The census bureau has county-to-county migration flows datasets, which I'd like to play with, but nothing for this year yet. Are there other datasets worth checking out? https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2018/demo/geographic-mobility/county-to-county-migration-2014-2018.html
I think the shock of the crisis is only short term. In the long run, the only structural change is the growth of remote work as an option in many industries. This affects SF, for sure, but it doesn't mean HQs are moving out and everything is decentralizing.
That's a narrative.
That's a narrative.
My point with this thread is that while the exodus narrative is strong, I don't know that we actually have clarity on the issue.
Help me get it.
Help me get it.
Some folks who I'd like to hear thoughts from: @burritojustice, @kimmaicutler, @balajis, @Noahpinion, @micsolana, @sbuss, @nonmayorpete, @uhshanti, etc
