The Review: GW 14 - A thread

Hi everyone, welcome to the latest edition of “The Review” where I look at the upcoming blank and double gameweeks at length:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)

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Q: What is the best chip strategy for FPL managers who have already used their first wildcard?

In this section, I take a look at the different strategies available to FPL managers for the gameweeks coming up and share my thoughts on what might be the optimum strategy...

... A few terms to note: DGW - Double GW, BGW - Blank GW, WC - Wildcard, TC - Triple Captain, FH - Free Hit, BB - Bench Boost

Before I begin, I would like to make a small disclaimer. All this discussion is purely team specific, remember there is no hard and fast rule...

... for success in chip strategy! I can only advise on a macro level basis hence if you feel as if any other strategy suits your team better, you should opt for that. Remember there is always more than one way to skin a cat! Looking at the schedule, the BGW will take place...

... during GW18 and the DGW in the following gameweek, GW19. No team which plays in GW 18 has a double in GW 19 which makes this period tricky to maneuver. There will then be a DGW in GW26 and a BGW in GW29. There’s also the possibility of a few small double gameweeks here...

... and there but we don’t have any conclusive evidence of that so it’s better to focus on what lies in front of us. There are a few games like Burnley v United and Villa v Newcastle awaiting to be rescheduled but for now, we don’t know when they will be scheduled...

...Like myself, a significant majority of FPL managers have used their WC already which poses the question on how to stay on par with those who still have their WC chip intact. The strategy I might follow for my own team is perhaps using the TC in GW19, WC in GW25 and...

... BB in GW26. I like the idea that this allows me the opportunity to triple captain Salah in GW 19 for MUN and BUR at home. As someone who religiously follows numbers, one thing I’ve noticed about Salah over the years is that he is an absolute beast at home so this is...

... an opportunity I think which shouldn’t be let go. An important thing to note is that Liverpool have a week’s rest before GW 19 too, which puts to bed any talk of rotation hence Salah should be raring to go for 180 minutes in this spell. I am aware that his record...

... against Man United and Burnley isn’t great, but how many times will you get an opportunity to triple captain a fully rested Salah for two home games? I think that’s better than saving the chip for later and captaining a non-reliable FPL asset. However, one of the...

... downsides of playing BB in GW 26 is that with the Champions League going on, rotation will be likely and hence fielding a high number of DGW’ers will become harder. What I like about that strategy though is that it seems achievable without exponential surgery to your team...

... As of now I would assume most FPL managers are likely to own the likes of Bamford, De Bruyne, Heung Min Son, Salah, Fernandes, Grealish, Kane and Calvert-Lewin heading into the festive period. Six out of these eight assets are set to feature in the BGW, and therefore...

... don't require much movement while the likes of De Bruyne, Son and Kane even have a good fixture in the DGW as well when looked in isolation so could be held throughout this run. What is key here is that the Man City defenders, De Bruyne and Spurs assets have good fixtures...

... before the double, during the double (even as single GWers) and in the blank GW ((NEW eve che BHA CRY wba SHU) and (wol FUL LEE avl shu LIV bha) respectively). which makes it easier for FPL managers to navigate their way through this period. Furthermore, this strategy...

...would allow FPL managers to use the BB right after the WC, which is a combination which has served me really well over the past few seasons. 140+ points on a BB seems achievable if you nail the WC, there are big gains to be made if you get it right. It’s important...

... to realize that some compromises will have to be made in terms of hits by FPL managers who have already used their wildcard – whether they choose to do that right now and Free Hit in GW29 or do that later in preparation for GW 29 is entirely their choice...

... Which begs the question, is it better to FH in GW 18 or 29? The teams set to feature in GW29 are still yet to be confirmed, but it is certain that the number of teams will be less than the number of teams featuring in GW18. The logic for free hitting in GW29 instead...

... of GW18 is more or less the same for managers with or without the WC. Here I mention the pros of FH’ing in GW 29:

1) In GW18 there are only a few standout fixtures which include the likes of Man City and Spurs, of which assets we already own, and since the aim is...

... not to play a squad catering to GW18 we can overlook playing a full team and only look to manage with the players we already own of the teams mentioned above. There are no predictable games in GW 18 outside of Man City v Brighton anyway, so is the FH really going to bring...

... value addition to the team? Players that could hurt you are the likes of JRodriguez, Richarlison, Aguero, Sterling, Son/Kane (whichever you don’t pick) and a Spurs defender – the opportunity cost of going without these players has to be taken into account. Is it as big?

2) Since we'll be looking to WC in GW25, a thought will be looming over our heads to incorporate the fixtures from GW29 which is a BGW which may cause us to deviate from playing naturally as the players featuring in GW29 are likely to be from the lesser sides...

... This in turn might not only compromise the potential of points to be gained during GWs 26-29 but cause the manager to fall prey to tunnel vision - therefore in an ideal world managers should look to WC in GW25 and then FH in GW29. We have seen countless times in the past...

... that buying players from the lesser teams just for the blank GWs often turns out to be counterproductive. The cons of FH’ing in GW 29 are given below:

1) It is possible that we might have some teams who double in GW 26 and don’t blank in GW 29 and hence that would make...

... these GWs easier to tackle even without a FH.

2) It is important to value what we have right now. There seems to be a lot of gain from FH’ing either in 18 or even in GW 19. There should be gains in GW 29 as well, but for now to quantify that seems uncertain.

Q: What is the best chip strategy for FPL managers who have their first wildcard available?

First things first, it is important to note that the deadline to use the WC is before the GW16 deadline i.e. 28th December 2020 by 6:30pm, GMT, otherwise it will expire!

As I iterated to earlier, I think the BB is used best in combination with the WC. For FPL managers WC’ing in GW16, BB’ing in GW19 is probably the optimum strategy as it helps you to plan the WC around the BB. I’m envious of FPL managers who can make this play, as they can...

... navigate their way around this period with minimal hits and can leave their triple captaincy to use for later, perhaps in GW 26. The downside to this strategy is that you are likely to be stuck with extra funds until you use your second wildcard. Soucek as a fifth...

... midfielder isn’t as expensive though, so him and a few cheap defenders (Dallas/Balbuena/Johnstone for example) might make this a workable strategy. This begs the question, which players to invest in on GW 16 WC if BB’ing in GW 19? Double West Ham defence is something...

... I’d consider in this case as they have the best fixtures of all mid-priced defenders in GW 19. I would also triple up on Liverpool as their fixtures are great, and pick at least one Man City defender. The likes of Raphinha, Bamford and Adams would also form part of my team.

Q: Jamie Vardy and Dominic Calvert Lewin – keep or sell with the blanks/doubles coming up?

Calvert-Lewin, owned by more than 60% of FPL managers, features only once during the DGW which raises concerns on whether to move on from him to an option which does feature twice in...

... the DGW. For me, answering this question is form dependent. However, I’d be hesitant to sell Calvert-Lewin given that despite a lack of attacking fluidity we have witnessed from Everton of late, he has managed the most big chances of all players in the league for the past...

... four GWs. avl LEI NEW lee is his run around the double which is favorable, so I’m not sure sacrificing him in the DGW would be a great idea. FPL managers who bought him early in the season will lose significant team value too should they choose to sell.

Looking at...

... Jamie Vardy, his fixtures (MUN cry new - SOU eve LEE) either side of the DGW seem favorable. Stats are on Vardy’s side - Vardy is top for xG among forwards over the last four GWs. Therefore, for me Vardy is a hold, however if you do not own him I would probably not...

... recommend buying because I think Martial for around a couple of million less provides a better, cheaper option (more on Martial later on in the article). United’s fixtures during the double read liv,ful and SHU,ars,SOU after that which is a really favorable run in so...

... Martial could be a good, long term buy. I fancy United to score once even against Liverpool, and I expect them to get a similar number of big chances that Spurs managed to get at Anfield but weren’t as clinical.

Q: Who are the Liverpool assets to own heading into their run in?

Liverpool have now kept clean sheets in three of the last six GWs compared to just the one clean sheet in the first eight GWs. I think the value for me lies in their defence, which is why it is time to...

... look into the Trent v Robertson comparison again:

Trent vs Robertson (over the season)

Mins per touch inside the final third: 2.8 vs 2.5
Mins per big chance: 962 vs 630
Mins per big chance created: 320.7 vs 210
Mins per chance created: 53.4 vs 48.5

By looking at the underlying stats, we can see that Robertson excels Trent in every stat mentioned above so he would be my choice if I had to pick one of those. However, with favorable fixtures coming up (WBA new sou - MUN BUR) and given that Liverpool...

... feature twice in the DGW, there is enough evidence to suggest that even a Liverpool defensive double up could be a great differential combo to shoot up the ranks. Firmino and Mane have been posting encouraging numbers in recent...

... times but for me if I was on a WC anytime soon, I’d pick Salah and the defensive double up.

Q: In this section I share my thoughts on the Leeds assets:

Leeds GW 1-10 big chances conceded per game: 2.3
Leeds GW 11-14 big chances conceded per game: 4.75
Leeds chances created per game GW 1-10: 11.6
Leeds chances created per game in the last four GWs: 12

The numbers tell their own story. Leeds continue to show their exuberant form in attack and continue to remain the sort of side which you would expect to score against any team in the league. However, defence is where the real problems lie. As can be seen, they are conceding...

... more than double the amount of big chances of late. They have a double gameweek coming up, but FPL managers need to be realistic in their expectations for clean sheets at the moment – which is why I don’t really rate the likes of Ayling and Dallas for now...

Raphinha vs Harrison vs Rodrigo (Last 4 GWs)
Mins per shots inside the box: 32.7 vs 94 vs 35.4
Mins per big chance: 360 vs 282 vs 283
Mins per big chance created: 360 vs 282 vs 141.5
Mins per chance created: 30 vs 35.3 vs 40.4

In isolation, Rodrigo’s stats standout compared...

... to the likes of Harrison and Raphinha but given that he is a forward, I think the numbers aren’t great to justify selection as forward slots at the moment are precious. Bamford is obviously my go to pick for the Leeds forward slot. Given how attacking Leeds are, I think...

... Raphinha at his price can represent great value, particularly when you take the fixtures into account (BUR wba tot - BHA SOU). Bamford + Raphinha in GW19 is the play for me.

Q: Who is the best midfielder and forward for a one week wildcard punt?

I’d pick El Ghazi as my go to midfield punt. Here’s why:

El Ghazi (Last two GWs):
Shots inside the box: 7 (Midfield rank: 1st)
Big chances: 2 (Midfield Rank: 1st)
Chances created: 5 (Midfield Rank: 5th)

At only £5.7 million El Ghazi has been the standout player in the budget picks among midfielders averaging eight shots per game over the past two GWs. With penalty duties, direct free kicks and a favorable fixture against Crystal Palace at home in his locker, the...

... odds are in his favor to deliver FPL points.

For the forward position, I would opt for Anthony Martial of Man United:
Martial (Last two GWs)
Shots inside the box: 8 (Forward Rank: 2nd)
Big chances: 4 (Forward Rank: 1st)
Big chances created: 4 (Forward Rank: 1st)

We know that Martial has always been a streaky player and now he seems to be back in form, having scored and assisted vs Everton in the cup game as well. By looking at the stats, it is evident that Martial is a legit FPL option once again and with Leicester coming up who...

... are fourth worst for big chances conceded over the last six GWs, it is the perfect opportunity to take a punt on an inform Man United attacker.

Q: Who are the best replacements for Tariq Lamptey, Reece James and Ben Chilwell?

With both the Chelsea full-backs set to feature on the sidelines for at least a couple of GWs, it is time to look at their replacements. Same applies for Lamptey who is offering negligible value...

... at the minute as he has been ruled out this week and has some tough fixtures coming up. I think Man City should be the go-to defence for those FPL managers looking to bin the Chelsea full backs given that they are ranked top for xG conceded and are second best for big...

... chances conceded and shots inside the box conceded over the last six GWs. It’s no surprise that they have accumulated ten clean sheets in their previous 14 games. This raises the question as to which asset to invest in. In an ideal world, I think Dias and Cancelo...

... offer the best route into the City defence. Both have been imperious with their performances and are firmly first choice right now. However, having scoured through the Man City forums, the significant majority of fans seem to think that Stones and Dias is the first choice...

... partnership at the moment, expecting both to start at the weekend while Cancelo despite his consistent performances is predicted to be benched. Hence, if I was picking one this week, I would pick Stones over Cancelo but if you own Cancelo, I’d recommend keeping. Cancelo...

... can play both on the right and left which weighs in his favour and should give him the opportunity to start most games in the festive period. West Ham defenders offer a good alternative as well, particularly for those managers who are not FH’ing in GW 19 considering...

... the fixtures that they have in the double (BUR WBA). Let's take a deeper look into the defensive assets of West Ham since they started playing four defenders at the back:

Coufal vs Cresswell (Last 3 GWs)
Mins per touch in the final third: 4.6 vs 4.2
Mins per big chance created: 270 vs 270
Mins per chance created: 33.75 vs 90
Mins per big chance: 270 vs 270

Coufal is only only £4.6m but not only is he outperforming Cresswell in terms of...

... chance creation, but he is second for chances created and big chances created amongst defenders over the past six GWs so he possesses a real attacking threat. Hence, Coufal provides better value than Cresswell. However, it is important to note that even though the fixtures...

... are in the favor of the Hammers, they are among the worst three teams for big chances conceded over the last six GWs and their defensive stats have regressed alarmingly. I wouldn’t expect them to keep a clean sheet until GW19.

Q: Who is the best candidate for captaincy this week?

For me this week, Mohammed Salah stands out as the go-to captaincy option. We saw a glimpse of what Salah was able to produce in a matter of minutes and with Liverpool now facing a West Brom side who are worst...

... for xG conceded and shots conceded inside the box over the season, it’s very hard to look past Salah who himself is top for shots inside the box for midfielders this season. Big Sam has taken over now and you’d expect some sort of resurgence, but it’s very difficult...

... for that to happen overnight and hence it is no surprise that West Brom had the second worst xGc (expected goals conceded) last week. De Bruyne is the only other option who I would remotely consider, but for me Salah at home to West Brom is too enticing a fixture to let go.

Q: Pick one – Son or Kane and why?

In an ideal world, you’d like to have both given that Spurs play Fulham and Leeds in back to back GWs. It’s tricky if I had to pick one for these fixtures. In GW 16, when Spurs play Fulham, I reckon that is a game more suited to Harry Kane...

... than Heung Min Son when the Spurs fixture is looked at in isolation. However, Salah plays Newcastle in GW 16 which in my opinion is the standout captaincy fixture hence going without Kane for this fixture might be manageable as the captaincy won’t come into play. Looking...

... ahead to GW17, when Spurs play Leeds and Liverpool play Southampton, a Spurs asset stands out as the ideal captaincy candidate but the fixture is more suited to Heung Min Son in my opinion as Leeds tend to give up spaces to teams that can counter well. Son is the better...

... option out of the two only due to the fact we have a better option for captaincy in GW16. Further, as you can see in the numbers below, Son despite having fewer shots inside the box is far more involved in Spurs’ big chances in recent times:

Son vs Kane (Last four GWs)

Mins per shot inside the box: 88.75 vs 45
Mins per big chance: 177.5 vs 360
Mins per big chance created: 177.5 vs 360

Credit to my friend @SFK7 for helping me in my work!

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I await your feedback. Merry Christmas and happy holidays!