A brief summary of the latest @ICNARC report on COVID ICU activity, on behalf of @COVID19actuary, focussing on numbers of patients, as outcomes are now relatively stable. The no. admitted is now 80% of the first wave, and in some regions have already surpassed that figure. 1/7

New admissions in the last fortnight continue to be more heavily weighted towards the south and east, and of course, London, consistent with the rapid rise in general COVID admissions in those areas. 2/7

After the 2nd lockdown dip, numbers are beginning to rise again, and are now approaching those in early Nov. Although still much lower than the April peak, that shouldn't be considered an acceptable benchmark, added to which, this level is being sustained for a longer period. 3/7

Comparing by population size, London is now rising rapidly in terms of the cumulative total. This would seem to contradict the suggestion that its higher first wave gave a material degree of herd immunity, more that the second wave has been more regional in terms of timings. 4/7

In fact we can see that (pop'n adjusted), the number currently in London ICUs is now as high as anything we've seen in the second wave, and whereas the NW was at its peak in early Nov, London is still increasing very quickly. 5/7

These aren't patients in for another reason who happen to have tested positive. They are in ICU being treated for the life threatening effect of COVID and sadly, 37% are not making it to 28 days. This is slightly better than the first wave, but with an older age profile too. 6/7

As many of us now rest for the next few days, let's take time to think of those in the front line on ICU's and elsewhere, treating both COVID and other patients over the Xmas period under very stretched conditions. A sincere thank you to all! 7/7 END