A few thoughts from me on today's deal

There will be lots of “we won/they lost“ spin this/next week. None of it matters. The deal will go through on both sides

More interesting is mid/long run outlook for UK/EU relations. I'm unfortunately more pessimistic than my poll 1/ https://twitter.com/mij_europe/status/1342049314345000960

Based on outlook of British politics, I'm sceptical the deal will serve as a platform for closer economic ties - arguably even over longer term

Instead, today's “zero/zero“ deal could prove to be the “high point“ - from which both sides are forced to subtract. A few reasons 2/

First, there will be pressure on Tory Govt's (under @BorisJohnson or @RishiSunak) for symbolic/substantive acts of “divergence“. This will bring friction. Second, the Tories (& certainly BJ) will continue to seek domestic political advantage in “taking on Brussels“ 3/

Third, @Keir_Starmer is still vulnerable on Europe (given his Remain/Ref role in 2019 & ongoing splits in the party). So even under Starmer’s leadership, Labour is unlikely to propose closer links with EU, say a Customs Union, bc this would risk playing into Tories’ hands 4/

Bottom line: having left EU, the Tories ARE going to want to “diverge“ - do things differently. They will also remain determined to preserve Brexit as a dividing line between the two main parties - limiting Labour's room for manoeuvre 5/

These are just a few reasons why, like @CER_Grant argues, it's hard to see UK returning in any real way to the EU fold, even say, @EmmanuelMacron vision of a wider periphery/partnership, even if @Elysee thinks today's deal would be “entirely compatible” with that outlook 6/

The UK & EU will work together on global stage, say climate. But even foreign policy co-operation will be cursory - certainly nothing institutional

Overall then, the political space/platform for closer UK/EU relations may actually shrink, not grow, over time

ENDS