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I'm glad there's a Brexit deal - it's far better than there not being a deal, in a minimal way for trade and security, probably more so because it's a platform to build on when sanity begins to reassert itself.
But today was theatre - designed to disguise the harm that Brexit /1
But today was theatre - designed to disguise the harm that Brexit /1
has already done to Britain, and will continue to do until we have a Government willing to undo this act of self harm.
As a reminder, the deal will reduce UK GDP by 5.2% over 15 years compared to staying in the EU, according to the government’s OBR estimate from March 2020. /2
As a reminder, the deal will reduce UK GDP by 5.2% over 15 years compared to staying in the EU, according to the government’s OBR estimate from March 2020. /2
This can't be replaced by deals with other countries - there aren't enough other countries. Even a deal with the US - the biggest prize - would add merely 0.16% to GDP. It's a nice to have, EU and single market membership is essential. /3 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51706802
While Australia and New Zealand deals would add in the region of 0.00% to GDP. Hardly the hope on the horizon some claim it to be. /4 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-deal-new-zealand-economy-jacinda-ardern-a9571421.html
One of the greatest concerns - given we weren't told and we haven't seen the deal - is the impact on police cooperation and security. Johnson was asked and blithely said it would all be fine - which inspires little confidence. This is not a gamble we should be making. /5
The EU have put together a handy graphic showing the difference between the deal we now have and EU membership. The list of what we've lost is stark. All of it will impact our lives - in ways we'll see and ways we won't. None of that impact is good. We're all poorer. /6
Today raises alarm bells about UK politics.
Johnson as ever feels able to lie his way through a press conference, for example at one point claiming that there are no non-tariff barriers when there are many - costly in time and money, which means costly in jobs and businesses. /7
Johnson as ever feels able to lie his way through a press conference, for example at one point claiming that there are no non-tariff barriers when there are many - costly in time and money, which means costly in jobs and businesses. /7
We know the Tories are in a mess - they have been for years, increasingly so since they decided their destiny was to beat UKIP by becoming UKIP. They may never recover. /8
But we need too to talk about the opposition. Ed Davey was right to say that a better deal should be negotiated, and time given to do so. In a rational world that's what would happen. But this is not a rational world. /9
Ian Blackford of the SNP naturally used the deal to argue for Scottish independence - in his eyes the only way for Scotland to stay part of Europe. He neglects to say that Scexit is a merely a rerun of Brexit - destructive, economically calamitous nationalism. /10
Labour has clearly got itself into a complicated place with Brexit. Naturally enough it wants to win back Leave voters lost in the Red Wall - but assuming that these voters will think better of Labour if it votes for the deal is brave at best. /11 https://bylinetimes.com/2020/12/09/starmers-strategic-silence-on-brexit-is-not-enough/
If voters are truly pro Brexit they'll stick with the party that got it done. Meanwhile Labour forgets that it can win these voters with clear policies on schools, hospitals, police and jobs. It forgets too that it lost large numbers of Remain voters last year. /12
Voting for the deal will do the opposite. Assuming these voters have nowhere else to go is foolhardy - last year they went Lib Dem, SNP, Green and Plaid. They can also stay at home. It's evident that Labour is voting for a deal it doesn't believe in - that counts. /13
This leaves Labour voting for a deal that it knows will make the very voters it wants to win back poorer, with fewer jobs, lower wages and fewer opportunities. It disappoints voters who look to it for a clear alternative path. /14
There is much wisdom on Labour and Brexit in this piece from @TomKibasi. 'This lousy deal is bad for Britain. That should be the only yardstick that matters. It is not complicated. Labour should oppose it,' he says. /15 https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/24/at-long-last-we-have-a-brexit-deal-and-its-as-bad-as-you-thought
I agree. Voting for the deal just makes Labour's job harder. Brexit is the worst political and economic decision of my lifetime. Labour should be able to attack the Tories on it for the next 4 years. There's no more Project Fear. It's here now. Yet every attack will be met /16
with 'but you voted for it, why argue now?'
'Do not expect the electorate to thank Labour for abandoning its principles and voting in favour of a deal that will damage Britain. They won’t,' argues Kibasi. I fear he's right - and that makes Labour's job all the harder. /end
'Do not expect the electorate to thank Labour for abandoning its principles and voting in favour of a deal that will damage Britain. They won’t,' argues Kibasi. I fear he's right - and that makes Labour's job all the harder. /end
An added thought - why is any party saying they'll vote for the deal before they've had chance to read it and scrutinise it in Parliament? The role of Parliament matters, and should not be downplayed.
