There is no doubt it is more transmissible because it is now over 60% of cases in London. And the effect happened so quickly it is huge. It’s obvious.

2/ https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1341795377364799492

Second, having a more rapidly transmitting variant like this in a country means cases increase more rapidly even when people are wearing masks and avoiding contact. Getting cases to go down is much harder, with stronger restrictions and more social and economic impacts.

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The relative spreading rate to the normal strain is doubling every 10-15 days. So if your actions are just holding the line with the usual variants it will double every 10-15 days. Horrendous.

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So we don’t want it to get to new places, we want to stop it. Taking strong measures to stop transmission works with preventing it from getting to new places.

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Just like in Australia, stoping the recent outbreak in Victoria went along with preventing cases from getting to NSW and other Australian states so that they didn’t have to take such strong measures (or any!).

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The way to fight an outbreak is to defeat it. Doing half measures, allowing new variants to get to new places, is accepting defeat.

Travel bans are an effective response to outbreaks, they let you have no cases in some places, they give you a chance.

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Divide and conquer the virus in different places. Don’t let it bring in reinforcements, especially not ones with supercharged new capabilities to defeat you.

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What we need now:

1. Limit non-essential travel and require all incoming travelers to quarantine in designated isolation centers for 14 days upon arrival.

Banning flights from just the UK and South Africa will be insufficient.

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2. Limit all non-essential interaction in shared indoor spaces to drive down transmission.

3. Strengthen widespread adoption of isolation, testing, contact tracing, and quarantine.

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4. Adopt a “Zero Covid” strategy to eliminate the virus as rapidly as possible, followed by opening up areas where community transmission has been eliminated (a “Green Zone” exit strategy).

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5. These actions must be accompanied with support from the federal, state, and local governments to meet the financial and other needs of citizens during this challenging period. This will require monetary support for people who can’t work during lockdowns;

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..housing and other necessities for those who must isolate or quarantine; access to masks and other pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions; and mental health support for individuals and groups.

See attached

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