Thread: It's very possible at this point that the early vote electorate finishes at 30% black (compared to 27.7% in the general). There are only 4 real days of EV left, as in person is closed today, tomorrow, and New Years, and only a few counties (Dem lean) have weekend voting. https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1342132270812041217

Simply put, Republicans have much less time to make up the Demographic gap than they did in November, and Dems are still holding strong in new days. There has been less mail voting, but more Dems voting early instead. It's also likely white vote will match the 56.5% from the GE.

How is that possible with the black vote rising so much? As you've heard me mention, Hispanic and Asian votes are down a bit. But more than that, we have less "unkown/other" voters this election. It's likely their Demographic data got updated. So this raises everyone.

But still, and EV split of 56.5-30 is a lot better than one of 56.5-27.7. Dems need the early electorate to have a higher black share than November, and we are getting it. We are being helped by new voters. The 65k new voters are only 45% white. Source http://georgiavotes.com 

Then the $2000 question is what will election day turnout look like? There will be more available voters, but that doesn't mean they'll actually turnout. Not all voters vote in runoffs. And right now, 51k day of voters have already voted early, so they're off the board

For our EV advantage to turn into an election advantage, we'd ideally want the election day turnout to be the same proportion of the GE or lower. So if we get 3 million EVs, that's about 750k on election day. That is the big unknown. Strong ED turnout will beat us.

But you can only control the present, and not future hypotheticals. Right now, we are getting what we need out of the early vote. All this mess with the stimulus and checks and Trump can only play into our hands for Eday turnout. Things are breaking our way now.

"Breaking our way" is not the same as being ahead. We started this race with a lot of disadvantages, and needed pretty much everything to go our way to get to a win. So far, it almost all has. We shouldn't be this close. I still rate it tossup. But so far, so good /fin