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I think there is nothing more I can contribute now
When Brexit matters have been uncertain I have tried to map what happens next
But now we know what the next steps are
When Brexit matters have been uncertain I have tried to map what happens next
But now we know what the next steps are
It's odds-on a text will emerge. The Council will approve it by written procedure (
Parliaments might need to mandate their Prime Ministers to OK it, but they will)
Parliaments might need to mandate their Prime Ministers to OK it, but they will)
On 
side the Commons and Lords will meet 30 December to approve a Bill implementing it
There'll be some gnashing of teeth, and complains about P. 427 sub para 4(b), but they'll approve it
Starmer will likely whip to vote For it, and a couple of front benchers might resign
side the Commons and Lords will meet 30 December to approve a Bill implementing itThere'll be some gnashing of teeth, and complains about P. 427 sub para 4(b), but they'll approve it
Starmer will likely whip to vote For it, and a couple of front benchers might resign
The European Parliament will look at the Deal more systematically in January, but there will not be stomach for a fight
The Greens and GUE/NGL will highlight all the problems, but the stodgy grand coalition of EPP, Renew & S&D will nod it through
The Greens and GUE/NGL will highlight all the problems, but the stodgy grand coalition of EPP, Renew & S&D will nod it through
Johnson will be happy he gets one press conference where he is not talking about COVID and is allowed to smile
von der Leyen gets her press conference so she can beam that she succeeded
Barnier gets a well earned rest, and deserves the respect of all of us
von der Leyen gets her press conference so she can beam that she succeeded
Barnier gets a well earned rest, and deserves the respect of all of us
Then beyond that... it gets more messy
I'm not going to get into the business of assessing the economic and trade impact of a Deal. Trying to do that is not my speciality, and there are dozens of other people who are capable of doing that much better than I am
I'm not going to get into the business of assessing the economic and trade impact of a Deal. Trying to do that is not my speciality, and there are dozens of other people who are capable of doing that much better than I am
Likewise I am not going to get into winners and losers here. Both sides got some of what they wanted. And if there's going to be any bombast about the outcome, it's only going to be UK side - the EU tried to limit the damage of Brexit. Nothing euphoric
Politically we don't know what this means medium term for the UK
Theoretically things could calm down, finally the EU question is not so visceral in UK politics, and steadily both sides begin to work out how to fill the gaps this Deal does not cover
Theoretically things could calm down, finally the EU question is not so visceral in UK politics, and steadily both sides begin to work out how to fill the gaps this Deal does not cover
I expect no immediate change, UK side. Even were Johnson to go (now looks highly unlikely, short and even medium term - ERG have no appetite to try to oust him it seems) he'd be replaced by someone else with a similar line on EU matters
Medium term Labour might improve, and work out a position on the future of the UK in the wider European context, but I'm not holding my breath on that one either. The party needs a lot longer to get to that, and I am not sure it has the personnel in the right positions just now
At some point, Britain will begin to assess what happened, realise it put itself on a track towards comparative decline - so sold was it on the Koolaid of the Brexiters
That too is going to be a slow, grinding process - through many years, elections, infighting and false starts
That too is going to be a slow, grinding process - through many years, elections, infighting and false starts
There is no bright future around the corner. The pro-Brexit lot will still be angry, because discontent is their default state. And the pro-EU lot will still be angry because what happened was not what they wanted. And so it will go on...
There might be bumps and problems yet, some of which I can help others understand. I will comment on those as and when they arise. But now is the time for me to step back a bit from all of this - for the short term route is clear, and the long term too fuzzy to contemplate
/ends
/ends
