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A thread on some early evidence on the impact of the new COVID variant - increasing cases, increasing hospital admissions but not yet the expected increase in deaths.
Is the new variant less deadly?
Is the new variant less deadly?
Generally, over the course of the second wave, we have seen a pattern of cases rising overall and then in the over 60s - which is then followed by hospital admissions rising with a 1-2 week lag, and then deaths with a 1-2 week lag.
However, as shown in the figure below, that pattern seems to have changed since cases linked to the new variant started increasing rapidly at the end of November with admissions increasing as expected, but not deaths.
This difference is seen more clearly when you look at the regions most affected by the new variant i.e. London, South East and East - where cases and admissions have increased more rapidly than in the other regions - but not so far deaths.
This could be because the new variant is itself less lethal, or because it is more likely to infect younger ages pulling down the overall average age of patients (which is what we are seeing locally) and age is by far the biggest predictor of death.
Or it may be that deaths are being postponed. It’s also possible that lower numbers of the most susceptible very elderly are being infected (as shown in the ONS infection survey). It's too early to know but data on the age profile of COVID patients will be released in early Jan.
So the good news is that the new variant seems to be causing less deaths than expected but the bad news is that hospitals in affected regions are rapidly filling up with COVID pneumonias leading to elective services being cancelled - which then causes harm to non-COVID patients.
So the key advice remains the same – staying local over Christmas and the coming weeks and being careful, especially when with those at higher risk. This will save lives from all causes - not just COVID.