Situation in London continuing to deteriorate as expected. Many doctors are worried that other parts of the UK will follow. A lot of misinformation around, so some fairly blunt observations here, for which I apologise. But we all need to understand the equation. 1/10

As with the first wave, the sharp rise in people testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, will be followed by a sharp rise in hospital admissions for COVID-19, and then a similar rise in excess deaths in January.... 2/10

….but like all disasters, for every death we can expect many more people to be injured and survive. And so it is with COVID-19. Most hospitalised patients will survive but they will take a long time to recover. Many will experience so-called ‘Long COVID’. 3/10

It's a false dichotomy to suggest we are choosing between the health impacts of COVID and the economic impacts of lockdowns. Poor health causes poor wealth. When an economically active person is too ill to work, their dependents are affected, all become poorer. 4/10

Like all diseases, COVID-19 affects the poor more than the wealthy. The blue columns in this graph show the number of patients admitted to intensive care by levels of deprivation (or IMD). The yellow line shows where the columns would be if we were all affected equally. 5/10

COVID is not a disease of older people. Half the patients admitted to intensive care are less than 60 years of age while four out of five are independent (needing no assistance in daily activities: washing, dressing, cooking, etc). Data: @ICNARC 6/10

For society, death is quick, simple and relatively inexpensive. But survival with serious complications is the much more likely outcome from COVID, and for many people a worse one. Also worse for the economy. Ill people need care from their family and the state. 7/10

So if (as some suggest) we lock up the old and sick, then let the virus rip, we would see many young people die of COVID, but many more survive with long-term disability, with the greatest impact on the poorest in society. The economy would get much worse, not better. 8/10

We must accept that the virus SARS-CoV-2 will be with us for years. When we finally manage to control the pandemic, we will still see a long period where the virus is endemic (widespread) in both UK and global society. Ignoring the pandemic won’t make it go away. 9/10

Thank you for your hard work and commitment to #HandsFaceSpace. Please engage those who need convincing and exclude those who spread denial. Many lives depend on our collective responsibility. Freedom to ignore the pandemic is the freedom to put the lives of others at risk. 10/10