Thread - Understanding the DDC election results in Jammu and Kashmir

BJP got only 3% votes from the 10 districts of Kashmir valley compared to 34% from the 10 districts of Jammu region (which is its lowest vote share there in the last four elections)

More than Jammu vs Kashmir, it's the religious composition of districts that seems to have decided the verdict. In 4 districts where Hindus comprise > 90% population, BJP won 86% seats while it won only 2% in districts where Muslims comprise > 90% population.

Another important factor! BJP has claimed victory by saying it's the single largest party. But it needs to be read with the fact that it contested the most number of seats. BJP actually won a smaller share of contested seats than the big constituents of the Gupkar Alliance.

Voter turnout in Kashmir continues to remain low. Only 34% people turned out to vote in Kashmir valley this time, compared to 68% in Jammu. This is less than the turnout in 2014 assembly elections.

Let's look at the district-wise voter turnout. Compared to 2014 assembly polls, turnout decreased significantly in most of the districts, especially those in Kashmir valley.

I summarised these findings in a story @htTweets here: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/the-number-theory-understanding-the-ddc-election-results-in-jammu-and-kashmir/story-JjJ6fMjzP2DXcn0LTMpM6H.html