Ireland's 938 cases today December 23rd, brings our 14-day incidence to 153.2 per 100,000.

That's our highest since November 9th.

A thread to offer some perspective. /1

Cases for Wednesday, December 23rd:

Germany: still counting, over 30,000 so far
France: 14,929
Italy: 14,522
Poland: 12,361
Czech Republic: 10,821
Netherlands: 10,388
Romania: 5,459
Portugal: 4,602
Lithuania: 3,737
Slovakia: 3,687
Denmark: 3,297
Croatia: 2,763
Belgium: 2,198

Austria: 2,131
Slovenia: 2,129
Hungary: 1,894
Latvia: 1,145
Ireland: 938
Greece: 935
Estonia: 664
Luxembourg: 400
Finland: 367
Malta: 84

I'll control that list per Ireland's population so you can see how our 938 cases compares today.

1-day cases for December 23rd, per capita:

Lithuania: 6,838
Slovenia: 5,067
Czech Republic: 5,033
Slovakia: 3,351
Croatia: 3,343
Luxembourg: 3,148
Latvia: 3,022
Netherlands: 3,011

Denmark: 2,842
Estonia: 2,483
Portugal: 2,224
Poland: 1,622
Romania: 1,411
Italy: 1,193
Austria: 1,165
France: 1,134
Hungary: 976
Malta: 944
Belgium: 943
Ireland: 938
Greece: 449
Finland: 330

I look to the European situation to try gauge how we are doing. Mainly, I do it to try retain some sense of objectivity.

It's easy to look at 938 cases and feel very disheartened.

But if you see that's actually still pretty good where we live, it can feel less so.

It's never been a competition, even when we had the lowest case rate in Europe last week, I wasn't looking to feel superior to anyone.

But you have to try ground your expectations in the real world and it is the depth of winter in our part of the Earth.

Winter pushes people out of the dark and cold and into warmth and light.

Indoors is where the virus has a distinct advantage.

So you have to look around the continent that we live in and try work what's a somewhat realistic case level to achieve and maintain.

The case level we were previously at was the lowest in Europe, to the point we put serious distance to the European average.

Maybe I'm too optimistic but I believe we won't exceed that 14-day European average (383.8 per 100,000 today).

I think we will get it under control.

If I had to guess where this all leads for Ireland, possibly around a 14-day incidence of 299.6 per 100,000 on New Years Eve, for a doubling rate of around 8.8 days.

It'll hover around that and slide back down early January.

I hope.

I try uplift and encourage but I know my presentation of statistics may appear detached or aloof.

I've had a relative in Beaumont hospital dying but bit of a Xmas miracle, discharged back to quarantine in palliative care in Swords.

Saw a photo of her sat up wearing a Santa hat!

She's 95 and a bit of a legend. Her nails are even painted red in the photo, whoever's idea that was to match her nails to Santa hat, it was appreciated.

So when I say 938 cases is beneath European average, I'm not trying to diminish the worry involved for families.

I am trying to give some sense of balance and hope.

If people are doing all they can do on Public Health measures, and feel like it's getting us nowhere, it can be distressing.

But if you see those efforts achieved so much to begin with, it can be a source of inspiration.

We're not where we were on cases. That's realism.

Still try to maintain that wider perspective.

There will be people who make out this is all easy peasy, for countries to continually contain the spread of Covid, but it really isn't.

Have faith we will get it done, again.