Why is there not more competition on the vig (fees) for sports betting? Why is -110 the standard for a spread bet? Once P2P liquidity (+scalability) improves for non-custodial crypto native apps like @AugurProject and @DegensBet, I expect betting fees to converge towards zero. 👇
The implications of this will be interesting. More professional handicappers will emerge, many of which will be powered by data-driven models. The narrative of "you can't win, because the house always wins" will go away.
You will only need to be better than 50% of people to be long-term profitable. Institutional sports betting funds will be formed.
Some important things to watch:
1. Infrastructure scalability. Ethereum gas prices, for example, are way too high for the current implementations to work for a majority of users today.
2. Centralized vs. decentralized oracles. A lot of development/experimentation is happening here, but much of this is still largely unproven.
3. Regulatory environment. The U.S. has been on a path to legalize sports betting. However, with the global innovation we are seeing from these "unstoppable" decentralized apps...something tells me the state-by-state legal crusade is not the path you want to be on.
4. User experience. These new solutions will need to achieve UX parity with existing services like Betfair, DraftKings, etc. This is a bit easier said than done given the current state of crypto infrastructure, the lack of simple fiat onramps, and complex oracle implementations.
With that said, I do believe this will all come together eventually. The sports betting market is about to fundamentally change, and I'm excited to see how it all plays out.
You can follow @DarenMatsuoka.
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