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THREAD On Sudan 1) That there have always been disputes around border delineation and demarcation between Sudan and Ethiopia is obvious
2) These disputes flare up and emerge as bargaining chips every time there is regime change possibilities in Khartoum and Addis Ababa.
3) This time however you have a scenario where both Khartoum and Addis are in flux. Abiy Ahmed govt has to wrestle against TPLF and the latter’s extensions in Oromiya and Benishangul Gumuz
4) Khartoum on the other hand wrestles with effecting democratic transition between the civilian council and Sudanese Defense Forces
5) Enter Egypt whose strategic interest to stifle progress on GERD and whose equal opportunity policy of funding and arming anti-Addis forces is long known. The border dispute is being employed as a wedge to embolden SDF against Hamdok.
6) It is also an “ideal” opportunity to stretch and undermine Abiys capacity in the North; to sour Addis - Khartoum relations; and to perhaps lead to a pre -1991 context where remnants of the TPLF would have an ally and reinforcement line in Sudan
7) This border dispute and Cairo’s intentions need to situated in the type of policy design it curated in the Horn or Africa . One can only look at Egyptian attempts in Juba Khartoum and Mogadishu in the past 6 months & the border dispute emerges as one chip on smorgasbord
8) a) Ethiopia will be better served not to start another line of hostility with Khartoum, b) it needs to consolidate the center and resolve the challenges in Tigray and BGZ. c) focus on the upcoming national election while negotiations go on
d) The bigger challenges of GERD management and the border dispute can be addressed at a LATER time
9) Detente and Prudence mean Khartoum’s power struggle will play out in time and the balance of power in the dam politics may or may not favor ETH.
10) The best way to eat an elephant is in small mouthfuls.
