Wild story about the leverage a small party (Komeito) has over its large party (LDP) coalition partner in Japan. Remember: Komeito controls 6% of Lower House seats, LDP controls 61% @DanielPAldrich @ProfDanSmith @KossDaniel @cmcclean @YusakuHoriuchi @sfujihira

For two months, the LDP and Komeito have been in an open struggle over which party gets to nominate a candidate in Hiroshima 3rd, a seat now vacated by the scandal-ridden LDP politician Kawai.

Even though the two parties divide up all 289 single seat districts used in Lower House elections, with each supporting whichever candidate the parties collectively decide to run, open fights over which party gets to run in a particular district are rare.

In a move I haven’t seen (at least reported on publicly) before, the Komeito threatened to withdraw its electoral support for LDP candidates in other districts if the LDP didn’t agree to nominate *its* candidate in Hiroshima 3rd.

After much back and forth, the LDP decided to cede the district, with Prime Minister Suga and his righthand man Nikai signing off on the Komeito's candidate, over the protests of the LDP’s Hiroshima branch.

A twist that takes this episode to a new level is that the Komeito didn’t threaten to withdraw its electoral support from *all* LDP candidates in other districts, only LDP candidates in the Kishida faction.

Who’s Kishida? LDP faction head who's from Hiroshima. By forcing the LDP’s hand on the nomination in Hiroshima 3rd, Komeito is trying to weaken Kishida's influence within the LDP, so that he won't be seen as a viable candidate for PM in the LDP's leadership election next year.

If Kishida can’t get his own house in order (as in, sort out a nomination battle in his hometown), how can he run the country?!

This article (and others) hint that this may be the reason Komeito went down the rabbit hole of trying to get its candidate nominated in Hiroshima 3rd in the first place! Because it knew this would weaken Kishida. Why do this? Because the Komeito like Suga, the current PM.

Komeito helped install him as PM. In return, his headline policies (supporting fertility treatments + lowering cellphone bills) are *Komeito policies*. Out of deference to Komeito, Suga has backtracked from a decision to acquire the capabilities to attack foreign military bases

Lots to digest here. Here's the article. 自民と公明､｢衆院広島3区｣で異例の対立のわけ 河井被告の後任候補で苦悩を深める岸田氏 | 国内政治 - 東洋経済オンライン https://toyokeizai.net/articles/-/397439 #東洋経済オンライン via @Toyokeizai

For scholarly work on this, see @AxelPKlein @AdamPLiff @MaedaPoliSci @ProfDanSmith @mclaughlin_levi Also check out @LuciaMotoliniaC and my working paper on LDP-Komeito coordination, available here: https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/amycatalinac/files/catalinac_motolinia_mmmtargeting.pdf