1. It's a rule, not a law - some movements succeed with under 3.5%, a handful of exceptions.
2. It applies to a specific type of campaign - removing a government. We don't have enough data to prove if it holds for other mobilisations.
3. The figure is about participation in a peak event, not cumulative participation
4. (and for me the most important) - the rule does not speak to leadership, strategic imagination, organisational capacity or sustainability - without those movements can't be sustained.
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