In a year of protest, this paper on the 3.5% rule - the claim that no government has withstood a challenge of 3.5% of their population mobilised against it - is a useful read.
A few take away learnings below >> https://carrcenter.hks.harvard.edu/publications/questions-answers-and-some-cautionary-updates-regarding-35-rule
A few take away learnings below >> https://carrcenter.hks.harvard.edu/publications/questions-answers-and-some-cautionary-updates-regarding-35-rule
1. It's a rule, not a law - some movements succeed with under 3.5%, a handful of exceptions.
2. It applies to a specific type of campaign - removing a government. We don't have enough data to prove if it holds for other mobilisations.
2. It applies to a specific type of campaign - removing a government. We don't have enough data to prove if it holds for other mobilisations.
3. The figure is about participation in a peak event, not cumulative participation
4. (and for me the most important) - the rule does not speak to leadership, strategic imagination, organisational capacity or sustainability - without those movements can't be sustained.
4. (and for me the most important) - the rule does not speak to leadership, strategic imagination, organisational capacity or sustainability - without those movements can't be sustained.