It's been a bizarre year in entertainment (and everything else). In just the last 12 mos:
-“Bad Boys for Life,” a threequel, somehow became the No. 1 movie of 2020
-“WAP” was wapped in a bow for TikTokers
-We all watched something called “Tiger King” together but separate
-Quibi
Here's a look back at the massive transformation of the entertainment industry that happened faster in the last 12 months than probably in the last 12 years
I started the year by talking about what a decade of Netflix had done to Hollywood (using chart below). But then 2020 was like another decade all its own: Hollywood shut down. Movie theaters shut down. Sports shut down. Netflix kept going https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-12-27/netflix-shakes-up-hollywood-as-disney-at-t-fight-back?sref=jO7iaJLA
Cable-TV and satellite-TV providers like Comcast and AT&T’s DirecTV were already losing tons of subscribers before Covid sapped their programming and took away the biggest reason to have a big, expensive cable package 🏈⚾️🏒🏀🎾 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-01-23/comcast-cord-cutting-is-bad-omen-for-at-t-s-earnings?sref=jO7iaJLA
Commercial break!: There was the Super Bowl. Remember that?? I looked at why we enjoy ads during the big game but not any other time. More in a moment, but ah, let’s just reminisce about eating chicken wings before most of us ever knew the word “Covid” https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-01-31/super-bowl-ads-are-lesson-for-netflix-s-streaming-tv-rivals
And now back to our regularly scheduled programming…
Disney had BIG news at the end of February, the timing of which inadvertently became whatever the opposite of serendipitous is: Bob Iger stepped down! After years of pushing off retirement & extending his contract, it happened. What a career: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-02-25/disney-s-abrupt-ceo-switch-startles-investors-as-iger-steps-down?sref=jO7iaJLA
But the ride didn't quite end. There were rumors that amid the crisis Iger was taking back the reins behind the scenes as, all of a sudden, earnings estimates for Disney looked like, eek, this: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-13/coronavirus-means-bob-iger-s-disney-goodbye-just-got-l?sref=jO7iaJLA
I joke, but ESPN8 showed just how bad things were getting. They were looking especially dire for movie theaters, which possess all the attributes of virus-spreading hotspots -- and they didn't have the balance sheets to withstand a pandemic lockdown: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-05/james-bond-movie-delay-on-virus-fears-hurts-amc-regal-cinemas?sref=jO7iaJLA
Then BOOM, the first Covid-wrecked earnings season arrived and all the movie postponement announcements began. These charts speak for themselves https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-08/coronavirus-5-charts-show-how-netflix-disney-are-changing?sref=jO7iaJLA
And then in the midst of all this, AT&T's CEO left, too. Making sense of the $109B purchase of HBO & Co. in the midst of a public-health crisis that shut down Hollywood & a recession that made HBO Max's $15 fee look $$$ was John Stankey's problem now https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-24/at-t-ceo-joins-disney-s-in-stepping-aside-mid-makeover
The window to do so was closing as it became clear Disney+ and HBO Max were about to become serious competitors even if they weren't yet. I predicted Netflix would use the moment to raise prices -- and it did https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-20/will-netflix-raise-prices-this-covid-19-winter?sref=jO7iaJLA
That's as surveys began to show that people just did not want to go to the movies ... whether because of Covid, or because they like streaming from home https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-08-27/covid-19-people-won-t-go-to-movies-just-because-amc-theaters-reopen?sref=jO7iaJLA
(Random fact: I took that photo 👆 of a discarded DirecTV dish while on a walk break as this story was being edited. If that's not a sign I don't know what is)
The same could be said for ViacomCBS, whose architect Sumner Redstone passed away at 97yo. I wrote about how the media mogul didn't want a legacy bc he planned to live forever. He got one anyway & it's seen in billionaires like Mark Zuckerberg & Elon Musk https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-08-12/sumner-redstone-left-a-legacy-even-if-he-didn-t-want-one?sref=jO7iaJLA
What were formerly Walt Disney Co.'s most important businesses — theme parks, cruises, films, cable nets — have moved to the other side of that plus sign. Now, the company can be thought of as Disney, a streaming giant, plus some other stuff https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-11-13/walt-disney-co-earnings-prove-disney-is-future?sref=jO7iaJLA
Disney also signaled that Star, a little-known Indian media brand it inherited in the Fox deal, would play a starring role in its international streaming strategy, which is very smart but leaves future of Hulu a❓ https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-12-11/disney-unveils-new-streaming-star-to-outshine-netflix?sref=jO7iaJLA
The $318 billion company recently reorganized into just two reportable units — Disney Media & Entertainment, and Disney Parks, Experiences & Products. The first seems to emphasize streaming above all. This was the slide Disney showed investors in explaining the new structure:
I'll leave you with this: On the weekend of Jan. 17, 2020, North American theaters sold $62.5 million of tickets to the opening of Sony Pictures’ “Bad Boys for Life,” starring Will Smith and Martin Lawrence. Attendees didn't wear masks -- we didn't even own them.
Now, what could have been the biggest movie of the year, "Wonder Woman 1984," would be lucky to see a fraction of that in theaters. Instead, it's going to be available on an app that charges $15 a month - not a visit - and per household, not per person. That says it all
It's going to take a strong stomach, a large degree of financial skill and a bit of wizardry to make streaming work as a business.
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