Not a time for triumphalism. With the protection of the Northern Ireland Protocol and basic LPF structures the EU would have protected its system, while Brexiter factions in the UK would have managed as big a break from the EU as possible while still sustaining basic trade. https://twitter.com/gbaczynska/status/1341753434937110528

The problem the EU faces is how to manage potential fallout impacting its borders and Ireland as a member from risks of instability within the UK Union state.

The problem UK Brexiter factions is that they cannot stop future UK governments from seeking reconvergence with the EU

It is in the EU's interest for the UK to either survive as a stable partner in terms of trade and security, or if it the UK cannot reform and survive to ensure that any fragmentation of the UK Union happens in an orderly fashion within a new institutional framework

Future UK governments will face a succession of problems arising from the struggle to manage a new relationship with the EU.

If UK governments seek forms of reconvergence to solve particular problems in ways compatible with the EU system then the EU should do all it can to help

The UK has shifted from membership of the EU to membership of the EU's sphere of influence. The EU needs soft power and security assistance tools to strengthen relations with its Northern neighbourhood.

Lessons need to be learned from the EU's mistakes in relations with Turkey.