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Because I am such a cool kid (and stuck with nothing to do) I got playing around with some data last night on how views of Johnson have changed over the course of this year.
A short(ish) and hopefully interesting(ish) thread.
A short(ish) and hopefully interesting(ish) thread.
So we are looking at the percentage of the public who think Johnson has 15 different characteristics, at three points in time:
1) Final poll before 2019 election
2) Poll from the start of May this year
3) Last week’s poll
1) Final poll before 2019 election
2) Poll from the start of May this year
3) Last week’s poll
As is well documented, Johnson saw a dramatic rise in popularity between 1) and 2) ("rally 'round the flag effect") followed by a slightly more dramatic fall between 2) and 3).
But did views of him go up and down equally across all dimensions?
But did views of him go up and down equally across all dimensions?
Short answer – No
The chart below shows how views of him increased between 1) and 2) (y-axis) and decreased between 2) and 3) (x-axis).
>Bottom left – Little change
>Bottom right – up a lot, down a little
>Top left – up a little, down a lot
>Top right – up a lot, down a lot
The chart below shows how views of him increased between 1) and 2) (y-axis) and decreased between 2) and 3) (x-axis).
>Bottom left – Little change
>Bottom right – up a lot, down a little
>Top left – up a little, down a lot
>Top right – up a lot, down a lot
Anything above the dotted line went down more than it went up, anything below the dotted line went up more than it went down.
I have bundled these into three groups in the chart below:
>Pink – Views of Johnson’s politics, little changed
>Blue– Views of how much Johnson “cares”, up a lot, down less
>Green – Views of Johnson’s leadership skills, up a lot but down more
>Pink – Views of Johnson’s politics, little changed
>Blue– Views of how much Johnson “cares”, up a lot, down less
>Green – Views of Johnson’s leadership skills, up a lot but down more
It shouldn’t be surprising that views of his political views haven’t changed much, as this year hasn't really been about political views.
But I found the fact that the PM is now seen as someone who has a bit more heart and a bit less head (compared to 12 months ago) surprising.
But I found the fact that the PM is now seen as someone who has a bit more heart and a bit less head (compared to 12 months ago) surprising.
As noted here, the two most dramatic changes are on decisiveness and having the nation's best interests at heart. https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1341487437453901825?s=20
There is also a Brexit dimension, with a bigger drop on the leadership metrics among Leavers, and a bigger rise on the caring metrics among Remainers.
Another sign that the dividing line might be starting to fade a bit.
Another sign that the dividing line might be starting to fade a bit.
