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A thread on psychology and political context of adherence to physical distancing in the #COVID19 pandemic:
What’s the latest research evidence?
How can we support adherence?
1/15
What’s the latest research evidence?
How can we support adherence?
1/15
2/15
With rising #covid infections and the new variant of the virus, *physical distancing is more important than ever*
Yet both anecdotes and the survey data suggest that adherence to 2m distancing declined in early December following the end of ‘lockdown’...
With rising #covid infections and the new variant of the virus, *physical distancing is more important than ever*
Yet both anecdotes and the survey data suggest that adherence to 2m distancing declined in early December following the end of ‘lockdown’...
3/15
UCL survey (data collected up to 13th December) shows that ‘complete’ and ‘majority’ compliance went up during the November ‘lockdown’, but that ‘as these [restrictions] have been eased in the past month, compliance has started to decrease again’
…https://b6bdcb03-332c-4ff9-8b9d-28f9c957493a.filesusr.com/ugd/3d9db5_56829e7218df4524b304636d226a6198.pdf
UCL survey (data collected up to 13th December) shows that ‘complete’ and ‘majority’ compliance went up during the November ‘lockdown’, but that ‘as these [restrictions] have been eased in the past month, compliance has started to decrease again’
…https://b6bdcb03-332c-4ff9-8b9d-28f9c957493a.filesusr.com/ugd/3d9db5_56829e7218df4524b304636d226a6198.pdf
4/15
ONS weekly survey for data collected period 2 to 6 December noted a drop (albeit small) in distancing behaviour (whereas for other protective behaviours the compliance rate remained high):
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandwellbeing/bulletins/coronavirusandthesocialimpactsongreatbritain/11december2020
ONS weekly survey for data collected period 2 to 6 December noted a drop (albeit small) in distancing behaviour (whereas for other protective behaviours the compliance rate remained high):
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandwellbeing/bulletins/coronavirusandthesocialimpactsongreatbritain/11december2020
5/15
Journalists and others are ready to frame this decline as public ‘fatigue’ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/21/new-covid-variant-in-uk-spreading-christmas-fear - an ‘explanation’ we have heard from the beginning of the pandemic https://bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/bjso.12393
Journalists and others are ready to frame this decline as public ‘fatigue’ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/21/new-covid-variant-in-uk-spreading-christmas-fear - an ‘explanation’ we have heard from the beginning of the pandemic https://bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/bjso.12393
6/15
Yes, the behaviours are hard to endure – some (e.g. self-isolation) a lot harder than others (e.g. hand-washing).
BUT (1) Overall adherence has been high (2) There is not a linear decline (3) Intention has also remained high https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/10/26/the-concept-of-fatigue-in-tackling-covid-19/
Yes, the behaviours are hard to endure – some (e.g. self-isolation) a lot harder than others (e.g. hand-washing).
BUT (1) Overall adherence has been high (2) There is not a linear decline (3) Intention has also remained high https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/10/26/the-concept-of-fatigue-in-tackling-covid-19/
7/15
There is now plenty of evidence on the psych predictors of adherence to distancing:
Knowledge/ Perception of risk
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.02.20120808v2
https://psyarxiv.com/vx3mn/
Efficacy of the measure: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589791820300098
There is now plenty of evidence on the psych predictors of adherence to distancing:
Knowledge/ Perception of risk
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.02.20120808v2
https://psyarxiv.com/vx3mn/
Efficacy of the measure: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589791820300098
8/15
Other key predictors of adherence to distancing:
Social norms – whether relevant others are doing the same
https://psyarxiv.com/ek69g
https://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?pid=S0034-76122020000400714&script=sci_arttext&tlng=en
https://psyarxiv.com/u74wc/
Group identification:
National https://psyarxiv.com/ydt95/
Family https://psyarxiv.com/g9q5u/
Other key predictors of adherence to distancing:
Social norms – whether relevant others are doing the same
https://psyarxiv.com/ek69g
https://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?pid=S0034-76122020000400714&script=sci_arttext&tlng=en
https://psyarxiv.com/u74wc/
Group identification:
National https://psyarxiv.com/ydt95/
Family https://psyarxiv.com/g9q5u/
9/15
Empathy for those most vulnerable to the virus https://psyarxiv.com/y2cg5/
And, negatively, low trust in government https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7493799/
(consistent with predictors of other NPIs: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.19.20215376v1 )
Empathy for those most vulnerable to the virus https://psyarxiv.com/y2cg5/
And, negatively, low trust in government https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7493799/
(consistent with predictors of other NPIs: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.19.20215376v1 )
10/15
Importantly, levels of public adherence to distancing have have varied over time.
Key public events have affected these psychological factors and hence adherence to distancing...
Importantly, levels of public adherence to distancing have have varied over time.
Key public events have affected these psychological factors and hence adherence to distancing...
11/15
In May, a reduction in adherence to distancing appeared to be linked to two developments.
First there was a change in the messaging (from ‘stay home’ to ‘stay alert’); this impacted upon people’s knowledge of the what to do.
https://www.independentsage.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Messaging-paper-FINAL-1-1.pdf
In May, a reduction in adherence to distancing appeared to be linked to two developments.
First there was a change in the messaging (from ‘stay home’ to ‘stay alert’); this impacted upon people’s knowledge of the what to do.
https://www.independentsage.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Messaging-paper-FINAL-1-1.pdf
12/15
Second, also in May, there was for a greater alienation from the government in response to the Cummings incident.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31690-1/fulltext
Second, also in May, there was for a greater alienation from the government in response to the Cummings incident.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31690-1/fulltext
13/15
There was a further decline in adherence in July, which appeared to be a result of a signalling effect brought about by the media fanfare around ‘freedom’/ 'end of lockdown' leading up to the relaxation of restrictions on July 4th. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/bjpsych-open/article/public-behaviour-in-response-to-the-covid19-pandemic-understanding-the-role-of-group-processes/C64F5D829F100ED0D052923F8CD7A7B8
There was a further decline in adherence in July, which appeared to be a result of a signalling effect brought about by the media fanfare around ‘freedom’/ 'end of lockdown' leading up to the relaxation of restrictions on July 4th. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/bjpsych-open/article/public-behaviour-in-response-to-the-covid19-pandemic-understanding-the-role-of-group-processes/C64F5D829F100ED0D052923F8CD7A7B8
14/15
The decline in public adherence distancing today may also be due to a signalling effect:
- Positive publicity around the vaccine (approved December 2nd)
- Announcement of relaxation for 5 days at Xmas (24th November
- Ending of the ‘lockdown’ (December 2nd)
The decline in public adherence distancing today may also be due to a signalling effect:
- Positive publicity around the vaccine (approved December 2nd)
- Announcement of relaxation for 5 days at Xmas (24th November
- Ending of the ‘lockdown’ (December 2nd)
15/15
BUT with rising #covid infections in many areas of the country, and with the new variant of the virus, *physical distancing and other behavioural interventions are more important than ever*
BUT with rising #covid infections in many areas of the country, and with the new variant of the virus, *physical distancing and other behavioural interventions are more important than ever*
