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/THREAD/Next up in my #2021PlayerBreakdowns Series is:
Alec Bohm, 3B
Philadelphia #Phillies
24 years old
Drafted: 2018; Round 1, Pick 3
Let’s get started...
2020 Stat Line:
44 G
180 PA
160 AB
.338/.400/.481
4 HR
24 R
23 RBI
1 SB
.381 wOBA
138 wRC+
1.2 WAR
8.9 BB%
20.0 K%
44 G
180 PA
160 AB
.338/.400/.481
4 HR
24 R
23 RBI
1 SB
.381 wOBA
138 wRC+
1.2 WAR
8.9 BB%
20.0 K%
In 2019 Bohm rose from A to High-A, to AA slashing .305/.378/.518 w/ 21 HR in 125 games.
In 2020 the 6’5’’ (this will come up a lot) 3B was promoted to MLB on Aug 13th looking comfortable from day one, making the All-Rookie Team.
In 2020 the 6’5’’ (this will come up a lot) 3B was promoted to MLB on Aug 13th looking comfortable from day one, making the All-Rookie Team.
Bohm’s 2020 Rookie Ranks
AVG - 1st
OPS - 1st
wRC+ - 1st
RBI - 1st
XBH - 2nd
Runs - 2nd
If not for a shortened season, it’s possible that Bohm (or Ke’Bryan Hayes) could have taken home RotY instead of Devin Williams.
The key? Plate Discipline
AVG - 1st
OPS - 1st
wRC+ - 1st
RBI - 1st
XBH - 2nd
Runs - 2nd
If not for a shortened season, it’s possible that Bohm (or Ke’Bryan Hayes) could have taken home RotY instead of Devin Williams.
The key? Plate Discipline
2020 Plate Discipline:
SwStr: 11.0%
Contact: 57.8%
Swing: 76.8%
O-Swing: 30.1%
Z-Swing: 72.0%
O-Contact: 57.8%
Z-Contact: 87.9%
Nothing great, but a touch better than league avg in SwStr, O-Swing, & Z-Contact.
Which for a rookie, is a plus.
SwStr: 11.0%
Contact: 57.8%
Swing: 76.8%
O-Swing: 30.1%
Z-Swing: 72.0%
O-Contact: 57.8%
Z-Contact: 87.9%
Nothing great, but a touch better than league avg in SwStr, O-Swing, & Z-Contact.
Which for a rookie, is a plus.
As you can see below, Bohm does struggle slightly up in the zone, a common trait for many hitters.
But he lays off of these pitches for the most part (above), being aggressive in the strike zone.
Most damage is middle/low, but he his overall plate coverage is excellent.
But he lays off of these pitches for the most part (above), being aggressive in the strike zone.
Most damage is middle/low, but he his overall plate coverage is excellent.
Taller players typically have issues w/ long looping swings, which make them prone to Ks & slumps.
Not Bohm, who has a quick, compact swing & achieves full extension.
He has a high leg kick, but timing is impressive, staying tall after contact (many lean slightly to elevate).
Not Bohm, who has a quick, compact swing & achieves full extension.
He has a high leg kick, but timing is impressive, staying tall after contact (many lean slightly to elevate).
Bohm’s plate discipline is complimented by solid pitch recognition.
This allows him to hold his own against fastball, offspeed, & breaking balls w/ the help of his compact swing.
Alec did lack power vs offspeed, but still held reasonable contact.
This allows him to hold his own against fastball, offspeed, & breaking balls w/ the help of his compact swing.
Alec did lack power vs offspeed, but still held reasonable contact.
In fact, power was the only concern scouts had about Bohm during his rise through the minors.
In 614 MiLB AB he hit .293 w/ a 474 SLG but w/ only 21 HR.
A 2020 ISO of .144 put him 12 points shy of the ever powerful Orlando Arcia.
But he is 6’5’’, why the issue w/ power?
In 614 MiLB AB he hit .293 w/ a 474 SLG but w/ only 21 HR.
A 2020 ISO of .144 put him 12 points shy of the ever powerful Orlando Arcia.
But he is 6’5’’, why the issue w/ power?
2020 Batted Ball Profile:
LD - 21.4%
GB - 53.2%
FB - 25.4%
Pull - 29.4%
Middle - 43.7%
Opp - 27.0%
Hard - 27.8%
Med - 56.3%
Soft - 15.9%
DHH% - 16.7
Exit Velocity - 90.5 mph
Max EV - 109.6 mph
Barrel % - 9.5
Launch Angle - 5.4°
sd(LA) - 24.5°
LD - 21.4%
GB - 53.2%
FB - 25.4%
Pull - 29.4%
Middle - 43.7%
Opp - 27.0%
Hard - 27.8%
Med - 56.3%
Soft - 15.9%
DHH% - 16.7
Exit Velocity - 90.5 mph
Max EV - 109.6 mph
Barrel % - 9.5
Launch Angle - 5.4°
sd(LA) - 24.5°
Time for our weekly refresher on Hard Hit% & EV.
Hard% is a linear measurement of BBE 95+mph, which is not entirely useful for someone who hits 53.2% GB (like Bohm).
Instead we look to DHH% which essentially weighs hard contact on BBE we would expect to be hit hard (non-linear)
Hard% is a linear measurement of BBE 95+mph, which is not entirely useful for someone who hits 53.2% GB (like Bohm).
Instead we look to DHH% which essentially weighs hard contact on BBE we would expect to be hit hard (non-linear)
Bohm’s 27.8 Hard% looks bad, but his 16.7 DHH% is above average.
A 93.6 mph FBLD EV certainly looks better than a 90.3 avg EV but it’s actually not that impressive.
- FBLD EV 140th of 257 qualified hitters (tied w/ Brandon Crawford)
- Avg EV 66th of 257
- GB EV 67th of 257
A 93.6 mph FBLD EV certainly looks better than a 90.3 avg EV but it’s actually not that impressive.
- FBLD EV 140th of 257 qualified hitters (tied w/ Brandon Crawford)
- Avg EV 66th of 257
- GB EV 67th of 257
This tells us a couple of things:
Bohm has a very consistent swing in terms of EV, but a very angle of attack.
This is confirmed by a 5.4° avg LA (league avg 11.9°) and a sd(LA) of 24.5°
But his Hard Contact IS mostly a mirage in terms of projecting power it its current form
Bohm has a very consistent swing in terms of EV, but a very angle of attack.
This is confirmed by a 5.4° avg LA (league avg 11.9°) and a sd(LA) of 24.5°
But his Hard Contact IS mostly a mirage in terms of projecting power it its current form
Bohm’s .338 avg (.410 BABIP) comes w/ a xBA of .286, so regression is to be expected.
This is especially true due to his batted ball profile. Having a high GB EV is fine, but those GB will find a glove sooner or later.
Which brings us back to Bohm’s other issue: power.
This is especially true due to his batted ball profile. Having a high GB EV is fine, but those GB will find a glove sooner or later.
Which brings us back to Bohm’s other issue: power.
Spoiler Alert 
A middle of the road FBLD EV & 25.4 FB% will not produce many HRs.
Nor will a 29.4 Pull%.
Not that their is anything wrong w/ an all field approach. It is just not a recipe to generate power.
But what if I told you his first career HR traveled 443 ft?
A middle of the road FBLD EV & 25.4 FB% will not produce many HRs.
Nor will a 29.4 Pull%.
Not that their is anything wrong w/ an all field approach. It is just not a recipe to generate power.
But what if I told you his first career HR traveled 443 ft?
The power is there. Bohm simply needs to utilize it.
The question is, will he?
Better yet, is there a reason to?
After all, what is wrong w/ being a high avg major leaguer w/ modest power?
Sean Casey did ok for himself & that is exactly how Bohm looked in 2020.
2B HR
The question is, will he?
Better yet, is there a reason to?
After all, what is wrong w/ being a high avg major leaguer w/ modest power?
Sean Casey did ok for himself & that is exactly how Bohm looked in 2020.
2B HR
Most popular comps for Bohm are not a right handed Casey, but usually F.Freeman or K.Bryant.
Freeman did start his career in a similar fashion, high avg & low power. But he never had a GB issue.
If you are hoping to see a LA adjusted power breakout I would look to...
Freeman did start his career in a similar fashion, high avg & low power. But he never had a GB issue.
If you are hoping to see a LA adjusted power breakout I would look to...
...Daniel Murphy.
GB%/HR Total:
2013 - 42.4/6
2014 - 42.4/6
2015 - 42.8/13
2016 - 36.3/25
2017 - 33.5/23
Murphy made his LA adjustment w/ the Mets in 2015 (historic postseason) before taking off in WAS.
But Bohm already has a higher power base from the start.
GB%/HR Total:
2013 - 42.4/6
2014 - 42.4/6
2015 - 42.8/13
2016 - 36.3/25
2017 - 33.5/23
Murphy made his LA adjustment w/ the Mets in 2015 (historic postseason) before taking off in WAS.
But Bohm already has a higher power base from the start.
Ironically, the end result of Bohm taking Murphy’s blueprint combined w/ his superior power would result is a slightly poor man’s version of:
Freddie Freeman
Different story, same ending.
But we are dealing w/ facts not stories, & we want to know what to expect in 2021.
Freddie Freeman
Different story, same ending.
But we are dealing w/ facts not stories, & we want to know what to expect in 2021.
The good news: Bohm’s minor league track record suggests that over 162 games, his GB/FB ratio should drift closer to even.
This should result in a more favorable outcome as FBs generate over double the “runs per out” that a GB does.
It will also, obviously, generate more HR.
This should result in a more favorable outcome as FBs generate over double the “runs per out” that a GB does.
It will also, obviously, generate more HR.
The bad news: Bohm’s .410 BABIP regression & likely adjustments may prevent the full breakout many are hoping to see.
But Alec has the plate discipline & skill to avoid long slumps. This should allow for a fairly safe floor batting atop the Phillies lineup. (Roster Resource)
But Alec has the plate discipline & skill to avoid long slumps. This should allow for a fairly safe floor batting atop the Phillies lineup. (Roster Resource
)
Bohm was also quoted as understanding how long & tedious a full MLB season will be after his brief stint.
His plan this offseason is to strengthen his legs & lower half since they are “the first to go.”
Not a bad idea, which will also help things in the power department.
His plan this offseason is to strengthen his legs & lower half since they are “the first to go.”
Not a bad idea, which will also help things in the power department.
Recap:
Low power for size
Plus plate discipline
Plus pitch recognition
High GB rate/Low FB rate, which could normalize but currently caps power ceiling
All Fields approach strong for long term avg outlook
Safe floor
Suspect short term ceiling
Low power for size Plus plate discipline Plus pitch recognition High GB rate/Low FB rate, which could normalize but currently caps power ceiling All Fields approach strong for long term avg outlook Safe floor Suspect short term ceiling
Bohm has natural power that he could tap into in the future, but it would be unwise to expect that in 2021.
Instead expect to see a slightly watered down version, statistically, of what you saw in 2020 w/ all of the same tools.
A slightly poor man’s, healthy, Anthony Rizzo...
Instead expect to see a slightly watered down version, statistically, of what you saw in 2020 w/ all of the same tools.
A slightly poor man’s, healthy, Anthony Rizzo...
What to expect from Alec Bohm in 2021:
560 AB
.289/.349/.485
25 HR
85 R
90 RBI
5 SB
He has a solid foundation that should make him a safe bet to avoid a sophomore slump.
A power breakout will likely remain dormant for now, but expect solid production across the board.
560 AB
.289/.349/.485
25 HR
85 R
90 RBI
5 SB
He has a solid foundation that should make him a safe bet to avoid a sophomore slump.
A power breakout will likely remain dormant for now, but expect solid production across the board.
@Phillies @ellen_adair @TheGoodPhight @PhilliesNation @FS_TBOH @ToddZolecki @M_Montemurro @MattGelb @JSalisburyNBCS
Entire Alec Bohm thread above, but here is a link to the beginning: https://twitter.com/MattWi77iams/status/1341712252811042819
Entire Alec Bohm thread above, but here is a link to the beginning: https://twitter.com/MattWi77iams/status/1341712252811042819
