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Prof Neil Ferguson of Nervtag says there’s a “statistically significant increased proportion in cases of under 15 year olds of new variant” compared with the old variant. Ferguson says it’s unusual for children not to be affected by respiratory viruses as children spread easily
He says it’s not huge, actually small, but statistically significant. Doesn’t mean will affect children in a worse way ie with hospitalisations
Anecdotal reports of “more explosive outbreaks” in schools in London and Kent, Ferguson says, and a “hint of greater household transmission” in data from the last day or two. This is all very early, Ferguson says.
If there is a shift to children then greater risk of children transmitting to each other which will pose “challenges” for infection control measures in schools
I would add that if it will take a couple of weeks for these questions to be answered properly, there is a huge question mark over schools - including primaries - going back first week of January
Later Ferguson explains that the “hint” of greater transmission inside households is not statistically significant, they’re just keeping an eye on it
Prof Wendy Barclay of Nervtag and Imperial says of Blair’s suggestion to get more people vax with single doses, that the trials were on the basis of 2 doses, “it would be a regime out of licence and would not be ideal”. Ferguson says it “wouldn’t be permitted” under MHRA approval
Ferguson explains the R0 (transmission without mitigation) for Spanish flu was around 2, for covid it’s 3. If new variant has 50% more transmission that would be 4.5, but that’s without restrictions. R for Old covid in 1st lockdown was 0.8-0.9
So the way they got to new covid adding 0.4 to R was tracking it under lockdown 2 in SE at 1.2-1.3
Ferguson says he expects flattening of curve of cases during two week school holiday because they’re shut. The “critical question” is what happens in January and extent to which we want to make public health measures across the country depending on spread
Ferguson says he was asked to step aside from Sage after the lockdown breaking episode but not anything else and Horby says as chair of Nervtag he wanted him to stay on and he’s very grateful that he did
