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Why the Tories, especially Sunak, struggle to get it right on Covid (with graphs!)
Even before the news about the mutant strain, polls showed that people tended to think the original Xmas Covid restrictions weren’t strict enough. 1/ https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/christmas-rules-covid-not-strict-public-support-poll-b319964.html
Even before the news about the mutant strain, polls showed that people tended to think the original Xmas Covid restrictions weren’t strict enough. 1/ https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/christmas-rules-covid-not-strict-public-support-poll-b319964.html
And it’s been true throughout the pandemic, that there are more people who favour stricter restrictions than those who think the government is getting it right. So why, yet again, have they found themselves on the wrong side of public opinion. 2/
Many of the right-wing commentariat (including some Tory MPs) are longstanding lockdown-sceptics. The fact that many of them were also prominent supporters of Brexit has led to the assumption that Leave voters in general tend to be more sceptical about restrictions.3/
If this were true, government hesitancy over restrictions would make sense – they don’t want to alienate core Leave voters. Yet when asked whether reducing infections is more important than personal freedoms, Leavers, like Remainers, prioritised reducing infections. 4/
When asked whether it’s more important to reduce infections or prevent economic damage, there’s a bigger difference, but a majority of both Remainers and Leavers still prioritise reducing infections
(Data from @BesResearch June 2020). 5/
(Data from @BesResearch June 2020). 5/
Why is this? Leavers tend to be more socially conservative than Remainers. And asked if they would prioritise reducing infections or personal freedom, social conservatives tend to strongly prioritise reducing infections. 6/
This grid shows an average score along both axes – a low score (green) means stronger prioritisation for reducing infections.
The people who veer towards prioritising freedom tend to be both liberal and economically right-wing (even then they slightly prioritise infections). 7/
The people who veer towards prioritising freedom tend to be both liberal and economically right-wing (even then they slightly prioritise infections). 7/
This is the same grid for prioritising reducing infections versus economic damage. There is a more straightforward economic left/right split here – being right-wing tends to make you more likely to prioritise the economy, regardless of liberal/authoritarian views. 8/
Meanwhile here is one of my favourite charts of 2020 from @ukandEU, showing that Tory MPs are on average MUCH more economically right-wing than Conservative voters. 9/
Conservative MPs (like Labour MPs) are also more socially liberal than their voters.
And we’ve seen that right-wing people tend to put a lower priority on reducing Covid infections than left-wingers, and that right-wing liberals particularly value personal freedom. 10/
And we’ve seen that right-wing people tend to put a lower priority on reducing Covid infections than left-wingers, and that right-wing liberals particularly value personal freedom. 10/
So given the ideological gap between Tory MPs and Tory voters, it's not surprising that the government’s instincts on Covid are out of touch. And this includes the Leave voters at the core of their vote. 11/
This is especially true of Rishi Sunak – last week it was reported he brought in two controversial scientists with dubious track records on Covid, to persuade a dithering Boris Johnson not to lockdown in the autumn - with disastrous consequences. 12/ https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/48-hours-in-september-when-ministers-and-scientists-split-over-covid-lockdown-vg5xbpsfx
Sunak is popular because he has given away money – ironic since his instincts tend towards traditional right-wing fiscal conservatism ie future cuts in spending and/or tax rises (which most economists strongly advise against given economic weakness). 13/ https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54419352
The Treasury also spent 10 days arguing with Manchester mayor Andy Burnham over fairly small sums of compensation, rather than concede the principal that more support is needed to ensure that businesses can survive the pandemic. 14/ https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54617898
The political instincts of Sunak and other Tory MPs are to re-open businesses and so they can avoid spending more government money on them. As opposed to closing them, reducing infections and paying out proper compensation. 15/
The government has constantly been torn between its ideological instincts and the reality that Covid is a nasty and highly infectious disease – the debacle over Xmas is sadly only the latest example. ENDS
