Read on Twitter
The new strain is a real threat. The article is by Prof McNally, Prof of Microbial Genomics who discovered it. He's very concerned. Please read it.
Then read this short thread by me on the evolving battlespace in Australia and how we should proceed.
1/ https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/22/new-coronavirus-variant-b117-transmitting
Then read this short thread by me on the evolving battlespace in Australia and how we should proceed.
1/ https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/22/new-coronavirus-variant-b117-transmitting
The only plausible way 'out of this' is by herd immunity through vaccination. Australia is planning to 'start' vaccination in March. Currently, we have enough of the more effective Pfizer mRNA vaccine for 5m people. The rest will probably mostly be the AstraZeneca vaccine.
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The data for the AZ vaccine is lower quality and currently shows it to be less good. That may change, but at the moment we are heading to use a much less good vaccine for most of us. That is not 'optimal', because we need as many immune as quickly as possible.
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Nor is it 'optimal' that we aren't even starting until at least March. Three months in pandemic time is three years in normal time. (Hell, maybe it's thirty years in normal time!)
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Yes, we look to be in a generally good position now, but the events in Sydney this week and last show just how precarious that position really is. We are having repeated escapes from quarantine and we always seem to be running to catch up.
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Now imagine the more transmissible British strain escapes into, say, Sydney, which of course it's more likely to do AS IT'S MORE TRANSMISSIBLE.
The strategy to deal with escapes in NSW, which seems (presently) to be working is to contact trace and test our way out.
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The strategy to deal with escapes in NSW, which seems (presently) to be working is to contact trace and test our way out.
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No mask mandate, widespread lockdown or ventilation controls. It's an 'all the eggs in one basket' strategy, because if the virus gets away from you, you can't go backwards in time and impose more controls at the beginning. Even more so with the new strain.
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We already know that our healthcare system can not withstand direct assault. Melbourne had over 4K HCWs infected at max community transmission rates of only 800/day - a negligible rate on the global scale.
OUR HEALTHCARE SYSTEM RISKS OUTRIGHT COLLAPSE WITH THE NEW STRAIN
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OUR HEALTHCARE SYSTEM RISKS OUTRIGHT COLLAPSE WITH THE NEW STRAIN
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The battlespace - make no mistake this is a battlespace in a full-on shooting war - is full of variably unpredictable threats, with new threats arising all the time. To maximise our chances of winning in this complex situation, we must dominate ruthlessly and early.
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Here's what we need to do:
1. Accept fully, now, that THIS IS AN AIRBORNE ILLNESS and do everything required to safeguard our healthcare system, our processes and our built infrastructure to withstand airborne virus attack, AS IF OUR LIVES DEPENDED ON IT, which...
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1. Accept fully, now, that THIS IS AN AIRBORNE ILLNESS and do everything required to safeguard our healthcare system, our processes and our built infrastructure to withstand airborne virus attack, AS IF OUR LIVES DEPENDED ON IT, which...
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...they do.
The latest infection control guidelines were published today and STILL do nothing to help us defend against a predominantly airborne virus. We must use the best available evidence to protect against the airborne threat.
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The latest infection control guidelines were published today and STILL do nothing to help us defend against a predominantly airborne virus. We must use the best available evidence to protect against the airborne threat.
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Egos must be jettisoned. THESE NONSENSE GUIDELINES MUST BE JETTISONED. If we do not do that and replace them with something which works, we can never be sure of getting the upper hand.
12/ https://twitter.com/YouAreLobbyLud/status/1341632799866949632
12/ https://twitter.com/YouAreLobbyLud/status/1341632799866949632
2. Bring forward the vaccination schedule to as soon as possible and do the utmost to procure the most effective mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna. And then RUN to vaccinate at least 70% of the population.
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3. Tighten up our quarantine and isolation processes, which will be helped hugely by fit for purpose 'airborne attack' infection control guidelines. (And make sure they are humane too, please.)
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4. Enact a policy of going as HARD AND FAST as possible on any escapes, easing our foot off the accelerator later when we can. The risk of it wrecking the joint completely if it gets away from us, especially with this new strain, is just too dangerous to bear.
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And that's it.
A simple strategy for a complex battlespace. It minimises the threats we face to the greatest degree possible. There is a lot of complexity to the implementation, yes, but the strategy itself is simple.
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A simple strategy for a complex battlespace. It minimises the threats we face to the greatest degree possible. There is a lot of complexity to the implementation, yes, but the strategy itself is simple.
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We are in a good position. Don't let's let complacency and hubris kill us.
DOMINATE RUTHLESSLY AND EARLY
/Ends
DOMINATE RUTHLESSLY AND EARLY
/Ends
So this isn't encouraging. They have detected another new variant in the UK, the highly transmissible South African variant, more prevalent in the young.
Might be an idea to get our skates on, Australia? https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1341765345196072962?s=19
Might be an idea to get our skates on, Australia? https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1341765345196072962?s=19
. @PKelly_CBR do you not think it might be an idea now to get our skates on with vaccination?
