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California was the first state to issue a stay at home order, has mandated masks for months, and has been one of the 10 most restrictive states over the past three months; Florida has no state mask mandate, no lockdown and is one of the least restrictive states in the country.
Florida and California are two of the three largest states by population and both have sunny, warm weather and reside on a similar latitude. One has had open theme parks for months; the other has never allowed Disney to open. Let's compare how they are doing...
Cases in California are now 4X higher than in Florida. Both saw a spike in the Summer, but California's late Fall growth in cases is dramatically worse than Florida's:
There are also more than 3X as many people hospitalized with Covid in CA compared to Florida:
In FL, the Fall wave of cases has only driven a moderate growth in fatalities, which appears to have already peaked. Meanwhile, deaths in CA continue to grow rapidly and are currently 2.5X higher than that seen in FL:
The same story holds for cumulative excess mortality this year, with CA doing worse than FL - and the gap is growing - despite Florida having a significantly older population:
So, even accounting for California's larger population, Florida has dramatically outperformed California in terms of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths (all while protecting jobs and the tax base and respecting individual liberty).
How can this be, with Florida largely open while California continues to lock down? Could it be that everyone in California is ignoring the rules? If that was the answer, wouldn't the result be equal to FL, not worse?
Could the restrictions in California be making things worse by forcing everyone indoors, where most transmission occurs, and increasing the general level of panic and hysteria?
Or, perhaps, is California just in the midst of a regional Covid season which all their masks, and lock downs, and stay at home orders could not impact?
Given the similar patterns in Nevada and Arizona, it appears that the regional-seasonal explanation is most likely true.
Given the similar patterns in Nevada and Arizona, it appears that the regional-seasonal explanation is most likely true.
In other words, when the local coronavirus season arrives, shutting down gyms and restaurants and closing parks and mandating masks - none of it appears to make any difference, despite the desperate belief that we can control an endemic respiratory virus.
