#COVID19AB
1/Super delighted that the curve has started to drop (if I get R of under .8 for Christmas I’ll do a happy dance) but the ICU and hospital numbers are still climbing:

-Still really high case numbers and lots of transmission so DON’T DROP YOUR GUARD YET
Hosp rates in AB usually 3-4% of total but given the likely undercounting of cases with the surge (% pos up to 10%!!) it’s quite possible these numbers will be higher in second wave because a skew towards counting severe cases.
3/ Death proportion has been 1% overall but again given the long term care situation with MANY outbreaks and the 10% plus mortality in the elderly, this could be much higher and the numbers may vary reflecting LTC outbreak dynamics.
(This graph breaks my heart. )
4/ not wanting to be a total downer, here’s a Christmas song!

Although I am an ID doc in 2020, so....
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