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For the past 3 days I've said that the high number of newly reported cases include an element of backlog / catch-up
In the absence of any comment from @DHSCgovuk or @PHE_uk I will attempt to explain what's happened
Or if you love a Stacked Bar Graph - here's the summary!
In the absence of any comment from @DHSCgovuk or @PHE_uk I will attempt to explain what's happened
Or if you love a Stacked Bar Graph - here's the summary!
In recent months a "normal" day has around 60% to 70% of newly reported cases coming from tests performed two days previously
And around 20% to 30% of new cases coming from tests performed three days previously
Here's a "normal" day https://twitter.com/avds/status/1338906318594338824
And around 20% to 30% of new cases coming from tests performed three days previously
Here's a "normal" day https://twitter.com/avds/status/1338906318594338824
On Thursday 17th December that typical 60% to 70% dropped to 43%
Anomalies happen from time to time, and it's important not to freak out over any one day's results https://twitter.com/avds/status/1339614681904930817
Anomalies happen from time to time, and it's important not to freak out over any one day's results https://twitter.com/avds/status/1339614681904930817
Then on Friday 18th December that typical 60% to 70% dropped again to 32% and it became clear that there was a problem
With no information from @DHSCgovuk or @PHE_uk we could only hope that the problem would soon be fixed https://twitter.com/avds/status/1340018248188870656
With no information from @DHSCgovuk or @PHE_uk we could only hope that the problem would soon be fixed https://twitter.com/avds/status/1340018248188870656
But on Saturday 19th December that typical 60% to 70% dropped again to 29%
What we didn't know was whether most tests were being processed the following day, or whether a backlog was building up https://twitter.com/avds/status/1340368574205075462
What we didn't know was whether most tests were being processed the following day, or whether a backlog was building up https://twitter.com/avds/status/1340368574205075462
On Sunday 20th December we found out that a backlog had built up
The total number of newly reported cases jumped - with 26% coming from tests performed 4 days previously (typically 4%)
Part of the jump was backlog clearing, but was there more to come? https://twitter.com/avds/status/1340713475048353795
The total number of newly reported cases jumped - with 26% coming from tests performed 4 days previously (typically 4%)
Part of the jump was backlog clearing, but was there more to come? https://twitter.com/avds/status/1340713475048353795
Monday 21st December saw another big number of cases - and again we saw 26% of newly reported cases coming from tests performed 4 days perviously (typically 4%)
Still nothing from @DHSCgovuk or @PHE_uk to tell us if there was more to come https://twitter.com/avds/status/1341069124630425600
Still nothing from @DHSCgovuk or @PHE_uk to tell us if there was more to come https://twitter.com/avds/status/1341069124630425600
On Tuesday 22nd December the "Day +4" share dropped to 18%, which is still a lot higher than the typical 4%
The total number of cases "Day +1" rose to 1,396 which suggests that maybe the testing labs are getting back to normal
We still don't know https://twitter.com/avds/status/1340713475048353795
The total number of cases "Day +1" rose to 1,396 which suggests that maybe the testing labs are getting back to normal
We still don't know https://twitter.com/avds/status/1340713475048353795
From Thursday to Saturday newly reported cases were understated
From Sunday to Tuesday newly reported cases were overstated
Maybe it's time for @UKstatsAuth to write again to @DHSCgovuk to tell them that when they know their data is understated they need to tell the public
From Sunday to Tuesday newly reported cases were overstated
Maybe it's time for @UKstatsAuth to write again to @DHSCgovuk to tell them that when they know their data is understated they need to tell the public
