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Important context on the Starmer numbers doing the rounds:
1) The changes are largely among Tory voters, not Labour ones;
2) The same sample of Tory voters has Johnson's approval notably up since last month, despite everything.
What I'm saying here is....
1) The changes are largely among Tory voters, not Labour ones;
2) The same sample of Tory voters has Johnson's approval notably up since last month, despite everything.
What I'm saying here is....
...don't jump to conclusions based on one poll - you can't rule out sampling error.
It might just be that this poll picked up a weird sample of highly partisan Tory voters, especially as @OpiniumResearch's poll this weekend had Starmer's rating up, not down.
It might just be that this poll picked up a weird sample of highly partisan Tory voters, especially as @OpiniumResearch's poll this weekend had Starmer's rating up, not down.
It's likely to be part of a real trend, however - you'd expect Starmer's numbers to fall as his honeymoon fades, and he hasn't had the best couple of weeks.
But if my hunch about this sample of Tory voters is correct, expect some rebound as the figures revert to the mean.
But if my hunch about this sample of Tory voters is correct, expect some rebound as the figures revert to the mean.
Also, if it is true that Starmer has pissed off a sizeable chunk of Tory voters, this has implications for how you interpret this change.
There's obviously bunch of people on the Labour left clamouring for his rating to have fallen in order to prove the point.
There's obviously bunch of people on the Labour left clamouring for his rating to have fallen in order to prove the point.
And whilst I sympathise with many of the concerns, it's important to be open-minded as to where the issues lie.
I don't think, for instance, it reflects Starmer's personal reluctance to fight for liberation causes - which Tory voters couldn't care less about.
I don't think, for instance, it reflects Starmer's personal reluctance to fight for liberation causes - which Tory voters couldn't care less about.
I think the abstention on Covid possibly hurt him, and the more adversarial approach he's taking towards Johnson probably results in a more polarised view of him as a politician - but I don't think any Labour members are clamouring for us to be more kind to Johnson...
