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As I noted yesterday, the Gov continues to lean into the unlikely idea that a crippled residential construction industry will be able to produce the quantity of homes at the pace we need them produced. Charts & figures after vacation. https://twitter.com/dillonliam/status/1341443186523209728
Some points for consideration:
1. MFH production in high demand urban counties in the 20teens was significantly above the pace of the 2000s. Bay Area counties saw dramatic increases in the pace of MFH development;
2. SFH production on the urban fringe dropped by more than 90%.
1. MFH production in high demand urban counties in the 20teens was significantly above the pace of the 2000s. Bay Area counties saw dramatic increases in the pace of MFH development;
2. SFH production on the urban fringe dropped by more than 90%.
3. Even as prices grew, demand was steady, and regulatory obstacles were removed, the pace of *total* residential development declined.
4. In 2018 - 8 years since the bottom of the Great Recession - there were 15% fewer MFH GCs employing 47% fewer workers than the 2006 peak.
4. In 2018 - 8 years since the bottom of the Great Recession - there were 15% fewer MFH GCs employing 47% fewer workers than the 2006 peak.
5. This decline was uneven across the state. Even though Bay Area stayed even with 2006. Other regions of the state saw catastrophic declines in the number of firms & workers.
6. On top of the shrinking number of firms & workers,
productivity also declined significantly.
6. On top of the shrinking number of firms & workers,
productivity also declined significantly.
All of this bring us to today where housing needs are off the charts, people have even less money than prior to COVID, contractors are struggling even more, and rents upend the fundamentals of housing finance.
While regulatory streamlining remains the holy grail for many housers, this statement has not become less true:
The upshot is that laying our hopes at the feet of the market will not save us. And recognizing that, its time for all of us to begin to think outside the Market/Affordable binary that expects an unwilling and incapable system to produce the housing working Californians need.
