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1. I was a corona alarmists and even lockdown supporter in March and April.
Things that changed my mind:
The failure of Lombardy catastrophe to recur almost anywhere else, the manifest failure of models that predicted everywhere would soon be Lombardy ...
Things that changed my mind:
The failure of Lombardy catastrophe to recur almost anywhere else, the manifest failure of models that predicted everywhere would soon be Lombardy ...
2. ...the ventilator-bottleneck myth coming apart, the open exploitation of pandemic by medical & healthcare establishments to lobby for resources, the insistence on mass containment after it had become clear we had lost against corona & it was everywhere ...
3. ... neglect (at best) and hostility (at worst) of pharmaceutical treatments, persistent lying (often from establishment-adjacent sources) about how Sweden had either locked down “organically” or was on the brink of healthcare system collapse, and general hostility to Sweden...
4. ... the (clearly strategic) neglect of corona’s seasonal / regional nature & suppression of mild & safe summer infections, the absence of any cost-benefit analysis wrt containment, medical bureaucrats dictating what are at in fact, at base, economic & social policies ...
5. ... hypotheses from earliest days becoming doctrine and surviving despite all falsification (i.e., masks explain Japan, schools are hidden drivers of infection), tentative strategies like lockdowns (foreign to western epidemiology before March) becoming The Only Way ...
6. ... targeted protection of elderly & vulnerable going completely ignored, constant doubting that immunity is possible, assertions by bureaucrats that nothing will change even with vaccine, the refusal to reevaluate policy in light of starkly different national outcomes ...
7. ... the fact that officials can only be wrong in one direction (not taking corona seriously enough, now we’re taking it more seriously), the complete silence everywhere on good outcomes: declining IFR, vaccine advances largely neglected until last minute ...
8. ... on and on.
I was wrong. In my defense, there was plausible case this was bad in March.
Ppl still behind this farce should read more, or reassess their priors. I know you can become emotionally committed to positions you argue on behalf of. That’s often a source of error
I was wrong. In my defense, there was plausible case this was bad in March.
Ppl still behind this farce should read more, or reassess their priors. I know you can become emotionally committed to positions you argue on behalf of. That’s often a source of error
