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ICYMI I wrote this article for @lawfareblog w/some ideas on what the Biden admin should do about #Afghanistan. TL:DR summary in this THREAD. 1/n https://www.lawfareblog.com/afghanistan-will-be-biden-administrations-first-foreign-policy-crisis
As was the case for Trump & Obama before him, Biden will inherit a war in #Afghanistan that’s trending in the wrong direction, in terms of violence, casualties, #Taliban control. Dèjá vu of this article I wrote four years ago. 2/n https://warontherocks.com/2016/12/afghanistan-will-be-the-trump-administrations-first-foreign-policy-crisis/
But Biden will also inherit a peace process that didn’t exist previously. He will also inherit the US- #Taliban agreement. Both of these are new dynamics from when Biden was last in the White House. 3/n
https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf
https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf
Unfortunately, that peace process has moved very slowly while the timeline for US troop withdrawals per the US- #Taliban agreement looms. Thus, Biden inherits a war that is eroding militarily & crawling diplomatically—with critical decisions required immediately. 4/n
What should he do? I offer 4 ideas: 1) Play for time. The US- #Taliban deal’s deadline for troop w/drawals is contingent on the TB meeting their commitments. Statements by @US4AfghanPeace @Commander_RS & GEN Milley make clear the US thinks they’re not. 5/n https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2020/12/17/top-us-general-meets-taliban-in-qatar-urges-reduced-violence
Biden should further build this case publicly & privately—make clear that until the #Taliban uphold their end, no more troops will come out. Significant moves against #alQaeda members in #Afghanistan should be a key element of this. 6/n
2) Make clear to the #Taliban that the admin’s patience for their compliance w/the deal is limited. TB have consistently pushed the limits of the deal during Trump’s time (eg violence in/near cities, hosting AQ) & found no pushback. Biden needs to change that dynamic. 7/n
3) Biden should engage in proactive planning for CT options that don’t require a troop presence in #Afghanistan. None of the options for this are great—but there are options & the admin should pursue them IOT increase its freedom to action on AFG policy. 8/n
4) The admin should press #Afghanistan for additional reforms to the #ANDSF to make them less expensive, less complicated & more sustainable for the Afghan govt (esp the Air Force & Army). This would help strengthen the govt’s hand in negotiations w/the #Taliban. 9/n
*None* of these things will be easy & they’ll all require significant immediate attention when the admin will want to be focused on a host of other issues. I’ll be very curious to see who the admin chooses to lead these complicated but critical efforts. 10/10
