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1/ Lockdowns are painful. Even Ontario's version will cause suffering for a lot of people. Compliance is high when people see results that are working and can see tangible proof that the tumult in their lives is contributing to the greater good.
2/ Most people's measure will be daily case counts. By delaying our mockdown 5 days Ford has basically endorsed family gatherings for Christmas day.
So that leaves us with our already record case counts about to be added to from a Christmas surge.
So that leaves us with our already record case counts about to be added to from a Christmas surge.
3/ People, who are already sacrificing so much, will see an increase of cases by the middle of January rather than a drop. At that point, they will have been "hunkered" down for 3 weeks and instead of a decrease, they'll be seeing similar or higher numbers.
4/ This is why these 5 days, at this time of year are so important. Modelling from yesterday showed a SIX-week lockdown started *immediately* would take current case counts down from 2300ish to around 500.
5/ The current mockdown is 28 days which even without the Christmas surge would not be enough to have a meaningful impact. Here's the issue, by delaying 5 days, even after all the sacrifices people have made, the numbers will still be high when we add the Xmas surge.
6/ So how does Ford sell an extension of the original 28 days, which we will ABSOLUTELY need, when people will have been "locked" down for a month and seen little to no effect?
7/ This is why you are seeing so much anger at the 5 day delay.
There was low compliance for reducing Thanksgiving gatherings and do you think there will be higher compliance for *Christmas* when the Premier has basically okayed it?
There was low compliance for reducing Thanksgiving gatherings and do you think there will be higher compliance for *Christmas* when the Premier has basically okayed it?
8/ This also has an effect on vaccine programs as the more transmissible variants mean we need to vaccinate a greater percentage of the public and high case counts increase the chance of escape variants just when we are starting the jabs.
9/ These are some reasons why the difference of just 120 hours can wreak so much damage.
