Looks like scenario 2 is playing out, which is not a big deal. Shame on you SEC for dragging your ass for so many years. All Ripple ever did was ask for your guidance from day 1.

http://galgitron.net/Post/To-Be-a-Security-or-Not-to-Be

Let the haters have their day, this is massive progress for XRP and Ripple. Sure, Ripple will probably be fined for selling XRP as a security, but that act doesn't make decentralized XRP inherently a security itself. This clear distinction will be the outcome of the SEC action

Technically speaking, all of Ripple's competitors would need this ruling themselves before proceeding, so it slows the entire pipeline of cross border payments using crypto. Competition won't get the upper hand

Brad's reaction was a bit exaggerated given how long they've been prepared for this, but I believe he was trying to limit market reaction

I can't imagine after this is over that ripple will not be able to sell XRP, any more than Satoshi selling his pre-mined Bitcoins could be construed as security sales