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(1/X) And so it begins...
The @Kleros_io case 532 is opened for arbitration and it will be a gripping debate to follow the next few days while the bull market takes a breather.
Follow this thread if you want to know all about it.
#Biden #Trump https://twitter.com/Omen_eth/status/1341214020301295619
The @Kleros_io case 532 is opened for arbitration and it will be a gripping debate to follow the next few days while the bull market takes a breather.
Follow this thread if you want to know all about it.
#Biden #Trump https://twitter.com/Omen_eth/status/1341214020301295619
(2/X) The @Omen_eth market question was "Will Joe Biden win the 2020 United States presidential election?" with a Dec. 20th 2020 closing date.
1.44M $DAI and 1630 $ETH of total volume were exchanged in this market.
https://omen.eth.link/#/0x95b2271039b020aba31b933039e042b60b063800
1.44M $DAI and 1630 $ETH of total volume were exchanged in this market.
https://omen.eth.link/#/0x95b2271039b020aba31b933039e042b60b063800
(3/X) The odds after the closure of the market were standing at:
86% "Yes" (Biden will win)
13% "No (Biden will not win)
But let's not forget that big trades for "No" were made just before closure intending to profit on an "Invalid" or "No" resolution of the market.
86% "Yes" (Biden will win)
13% "No (Biden will not win)
But let's not forget that big trades for "No" were made just before closure intending to profit on an "Invalid" or "No" resolution of the market.
(4/X) After the closing time of the market, the resolution is crowdsourced through @RealityEth subjective oracle for smart contract.
Any user is then invited to lock a bond in $ETH for his preferred answer starting with 1 $ETH.
…https://bafybeieixpg6uwbgbtq7namfui3nvbmoss7pqfx24m4cbkd3umxhdszl64.ipfs.dweb.link/app/#!/question/0x4a34990e23a9aafff10733cca57777ec969f3a748f1ef5489dd959b9dfd650b8
Any user is then invited to lock a bond in $ETH for his preferred answer starting with 1 $ETH.
…https://bafybeieixpg6uwbgbtq7namfui3nvbmoss7pqfx24m4cbkd3umxhdszl64.ipfs.dweb.link/app/#!/question/0x4a34990e23a9aafff10733cca57777ec969f3a748f1ef5489dd959b9dfd650b8
(5/X) If someone wants the market to resolve for another answer, they have to lock a bond that is 2 times the value of the previous bond.
And that is how, "Yes", "No" and "Invalid" answers supporters battled until they reached a bond of 42 $ETH.
And that is how, "Yes", "No" and "Invalid" answers supporters battled until they reached a bond of 42 $ETH.
(6/X) After someone posted a bond of 42 $ETH for a "Yes" resolution, the choice for "No" and "Invalid" supporters was to either lock an 84 $ETH bond or to lock 41 $ETH to apply for arbitration in @Kleros_io General Court.
(7/X) The "No"/"Invalid" camp, bolstered by the fact they own a lot of "No" shares that would end up worthless in case of a "Yes" resolution quickly organized in various TG group the crowdfunding (in Aegis DAO) of that 41 $ETH deposit for arbitration.
https://client.aragon.org/#/aegis2/0xe9d342fb5f04683c85ee64c5c682969c0b26b056/
https://client.aragon.org/#/aegis2/0xe9d342fb5f04683c85ee64c5c682969c0b26b056/
(8/X) And they made it, a few hours before the deadline.
They applied for arbitration and enabled the creation of @Kleros_io case n°532 in the General Court.
https://court.kleros.io/cases/532
They applied for arbitration and enabled the creation of @Kleros_io case n°532 in the General Court.
https://court.kleros.io/cases/532
(9/X) Case 532 was opened directly in the "General Court", the highest court in the Kleros courts tree.
It will randomly draw 500 jurors (with odds of being drawn weighted by $PNK stake) to vote on this case.
It will randomly draw 500 jurors (with odds of being drawn weighted by $PNK stake) to vote on this case.
(10/X) This case is different from the usual cases in Kleros Court.
Due to past incompatibilities of appeal features with Reality.eth, it does not allow for appeals and will take place as a single round of 500 transparent votes.
This won't be the case in the future anymore.
Due to past incompatibilities of appeal features with Reality.eth, it does not allow for appeals and will take place as a single round of 500 transparent votes.
This won't be the case in the future anymore.
(11/X) Any individual having staked a minimum of 500 $PNK in the General Court or any of its sub-courts (as displayed in the tree of the previous tweet) is eligible to be drawn as a juror for this case.
http://klerosboard.com/graphs/
http://klerosboard.com/graphs/
(12/X) Right now, Case 532 is in "Evidence Period" for 3 days during which all parties will be invited to share pieces of evidence for their side in the ERC-1497 - Evidence Standard.
https://developer.kleros.io/en/latest/erc-1497.html
https://developer.kleros.io/en/latest/erc-1497.html
(13/X) Even it was not published as evidence yet, we can see that the "Invalid" supporters are really motivated not to lose money.
They already hired the famous Tyrone (already involved in case 302) to make a case for their side.
They already hired the famous Tyrone (already involved in case 302) to make a case for their side.
(14/X) Strong opinions on all sides are starting to be expressed. The debate will be heating up for sure!
As Kleros unofficial Minister of Justice, I'm of course forbidden from expressing my personal point of view
As Kleros unofficial Minister of Justice, I'm of course forbidden from expressing my personal point of view
(15/X) All 500 jurors slots have now been drawn.
There will be 58 unique addresses voting with 250 $PNK staked each and 41 $ETH of total fee to be shared to correct voters.
You can check in your Kleros Court dashboard if you've been drawn.
https://court.kleros.io/cases
There will be 58 unique addresses voting with 250 $PNK staked each and 41 $ETH of total fee to be shared to correct voters.
You can check in your Kleros Court dashboard if you've been drawn.
https://court.kleros.io/cases
(16/X) As a reminder, here are the Omen Market Rules:
https://omen.eth.link/rules.pdf
These give details on how unclear questions should be resolved, what the default assumptions of Omen are, and what the criteria to identify an invalid market are.
https://omen.eth.link/rules.pdf
These give details on how unclear questions should be resolved, what the default assumptions of Omen are, and what the criteria to identify an invalid market are.
(17/X) After the opening statement video of the "Invalid" side shared above (from @aegis_eth), we now have new documents coming from "Yes" supporters:
1/ https://ipfs.kleros.io/ipfs/QmPxshJDife5p9m9upLJER5VumMDqfTqQneSWXXrNCSmYh
2/ https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XTwh9iPKkAl5Sf2TcYLm1xvxAHX7yVnMgzvFpYgfSgI/edit
1/ https://ipfs.kleros.io/ipfs/QmPxshJDife5p9m9upLJER5VumMDqfTqQneSWXXrNCSmYh
2/ https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XTwh9iPKkAl5Sf2TcYLm1xvxAHX7yVnMgzvFpYgfSgI/edit
(18/X) Another well-structured argumentation presenting the constitutional argument for an "Invalid" resolution mainly focused on the reasoning that the following Omen rule is broken: "The outcome of the market must be known by its Resolution Date" https://docs.google.com/document/d/1mFnPwHt76cFDr9kGYKdVYkh1IQXZygWpw9HtNI4hPV4/edit
(19/X) Less than 24 hours left in the Evidence Period to participate in the debate!
After this, on Friday 25th December at around 6:15am UTC, the voting period will start and jurors drawn will be asked to vote "Yes"/"No" or "Refuse to arbitrate" and to justify their vote.
After this, on Friday 25th December at around 6:15am UTC, the voting period will start and jurors drawn will be asked to vote "Yes"/"No" or "Refuse to arbitrate" and to justify their vote.
(20/X) Merry Christmas!
Here are the latest developments of Christmas Eve:
- Invalid: https://twitter.com/aegis_eth/status/1341970713662676993
- Yes: https://twitter.com/edmundedgar/status/1342295476901617668 and https://twitter.com/edmundedgar/status/1342258509908340736
Now that you are informed, make your mind!
Here are the latest developments of Christmas Eve:
- Invalid: https://twitter.com/aegis_eth/status/1341970713662676993
- Yes: https://twitter.com/edmundedgar/status/1342295476901617668 and https://twitter.com/edmundedgar/status/1342258509908340736
Now that you are informed, make your mind!
(21/X) And voting has begun!
It will last for a bit more than 6 days and end on January 1st 2021, 00:22am UTC.
This specific case will not use "commit and reveal" so the votes can be seen as they are submitted:
https://klerosexplorer.com/case/532
It will last for a bit more than 6 days and end on January 1st 2021, 00:22am UTC.
This specific case will not use "commit and reveal" so the votes can be seen as they are submitted:
https://klerosexplorer.com/case/532
