A couple of observations on whether the restrictions in north Wales are justified by the evidence.

A key claim from the FM is that the all-Wales restrictions are linked to the existence of a new, more easily transmitted strain of COVID-19 found in the SE of England.

1/ https://twitter.com/WalesOnline/status/1341043446971326465

Summary of @PublicHealthW statement (21/12/20):

At 14 December, 20 confirmed cases of new variant identified

Cases across Wales, earliest case likely November

Estimates suggest approx 11% of recent new cases (over 600) are new variant.

https://covid19-phwstatement.nhs.wales/ 

2/

The rolling 7 day case numbers per 100,000 show figures in north west Wales have barely moved since mid November and are consistently amongst the lowest in Wales.

(H/T @foxy_michael for the graph)

3/

Hospital admissions in north Wales due to COVID-19 (which will lag case numbers) show similar characteristics and the same contrast to figures for the rest of Wales.

( https://public.tableau.com/views/RapidCOVID-19virology-Mobilefriendly/Summary?%3AshowVizHome=no&%3Aembed=true#2)

4/

In terms of how to respond, we know that the new variant is

Thought to be more easily transmitted
Not believed to be more deadly
Managed by the current measures ( #HandsFaceSpace)

5/

A genuine question for the @WelshGovernment:

Was the decision to close pubs, restaurants and many other businesses in north Wales (at their busiest time of year) based on "estimates" derived from just 20 confirmed cases, mostly in South Wales?

6/6

#wellgetthroughthis