1/ Striking, contrasting new findings on Indian govt.'s "New Welfarism" with broader lessons for pol. economy of development & for democratic politics

1. Big gains on New Welfarism, namely, access to essential goods/services

2. But reversal of gains on child stunting

2/ Piece @IndianExpress by @vksdimble @abhishekecon & me based on our analysis of first round of new National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) data: https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/national-family-health-survey-new-welfarism-of-indias-right-7114104/

3/ What's New Welfarism (NW)?

Distinctive, conscious redistribution/inclusion policy:

not prioritizing basic health/education

ambivalence on safety net

Instead, subsidized *govt.* provision of essential *private* goods/services: bank a/cs, toilets, power, fuel, housing, water

4/ Finding 1

From 2015, big gains in households' access to essentials, targeted under specific programs

Levels of access at historic high (60%-95%)

Pace accelerated sharply under Modi govt.

Gains marked in rural India & for women's financial inclusion

5/ Finding 2

But stunting of children-already high by global norms in 2015-has gone up, reversing progress over a decade

So, not stalled progress but retrogression

6/ Pol. economy: Why progress on NW, setback on stunting?

NW backed by Conviction (imp. for lives of poor) AND

Calculation: Target tangibles that are easy to deliver, measure & monitor AND ensure attribution to govt./benefactor

Less easy to do for child nutrition/stunting

7/ Pol. economy: Why progress on NW, setback on stunting?

Child nutrition requires time to deliver; related to social norms; & poorer households having more incomes

Findings on stunting outcomes at odds w/ narrative of rapid growing economy, pre-Covid: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/cid/publications/faculty-working-papers/india-great-slowdown

8/ Broader global trend in democratic politics?

New recipe for electoral success (also Turkey/Hungary/Poland)

-leverage identity politics of right
-embrace tepidly market-reform of center
-appropriate redistributive economics of left (distinctively in India-New Welfarism)

n/ Data and details of findings here: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1pcrpZ8eFIhYXfeyQEtAXOZ_tCUQ8PyGa

pdf version of @IndianExpress piece here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1FCfy-li9s5uDr3ceTRyZ7KaUpg__A8G-/view?usp=sharing