I'm bored, decided to jump into excel and start pumping in defensive numbers to see if I can find some defensive coordinators to check out. Obviously me and Mullen are going to have wildly different requirements. Mullen may not even care what the metrics of his targets are. I do.

My first metric was scoring defense. The next thing I'm looking for is 3 years of consistent production in the top 25. For example, the scoring D for San Diego St the last 3 yrs was 12, 2, 32. The issue here is Kurt Mattix is the DC this year.

Zach Arnett was the DC in 2018 and 2019. I don't value Kurt Mattix in this situation because how much of this defensive performance was him taking over Arnett's group? He's only been the DC for one year at SDSU.

So then I looked at Zach Arnett. He had two really good defenses in 2018 and 2019 at San Diego State, got hired away to Miss. States DC for 2020, they ranked 58th this year. Not good, but it is a jump up from 73rd in 2019.

This is where this kind of research gets tricky. It seems like Zach Arnett is a pretty good defensive coordinator but he has only 3 years of a total sample size to his name. 2 at SDSU, 1 at MSU. So continue on and I'll start listing some numbers.

I only went back to 2018 for this because going deeper is just a pain in my ass. Most of the guys I looked at started as DC in 2016, some went back further, so numbers can jump around. Plus the game changes so I thought 2018-2020 was all I needed.

Obviously, this isn't perfect because 2020 is an asterisk kind of season. At the same time, you get a really good glimpse of who had their team prepared in a season with either no or severely limited spring/fall camp.

Scoring D ranking, average over 3 year span.

Brent Venables = 5
Phil Parker (Iowa) = 7.6
Marcus Freeman (Cin) = 13
Jim Leonhard (Wis) = 16.6
Pete Kwiatkowski (Wash) = 20.3
David Reeves (UAB) = 20.6
Morgan Scalley (Utes) = 22
Ilaisa Tuiaki (BYU) = 25

Scoring D ranking, average over a 2 year span

Potentially some candidates here despite them not being a DC at this specific team for 3 or more years.

Dan Lanning (UGA) = 11
Brad Lampert (Marsh) = 12.5
Pete Golding (Bama) = 16.5

Now I moved onto third-down defense. Conversion % allowed. I only looked into the teams/coordinators who averaged in the top 25 for scoring D

3rd down D

Reeves (UAB) = 4.3
Venables (Clem) = 9
Scalley (Utes) = 15.3
Leonhard (Wis) = 19.3*
Freeman (Cin) = 29
Parker (Iowa) = 47.3
Tuiaki (BYU) = 56.3
Kwiatkowski (Wash) = 62.6

* Wisconsin has been 1st in 3rd down D in 2019 and 2020

Now for the three 2 year coordinators I looked at

Lanning (UGA) = 25
Lampert (Marsh) = 38.5
Golding (Bama) = 54

For context, Florida's third-down ranks over the last three years:

74th, 40th, 53rd

So now I've narrowed this down to

Reeves (UAB), Venables (Clem), Scalley (Utes), Leonhard (Wis), Freeman (Cin). All in the top 30 in both scoring D and 3rd down D.

Of the two-year coordinators only 1 of them made the top 25, that is Lanning. I don't think I'd punish Lampert much because they were 65th in 2019 and 12th in 2020. An asterisk year jump like that stands out. I'm not ignoring SOS, just looking at the pure numbers.

Turnover Margin

Venables (Clem) = 18.3
Freeman (Cin) = 45.3
Scalley (Utes) = 57.6
Leonhard (Wis) = 72
Reeves (UAB) = 85.3

Golding (Bama) = 7
Lanning (UGA) = 60
Lampert (Marsh) = 64

Sacks

Venables (Clem) = 3
Reeves (UAB) = 19.6
Freeman (Cin) = 36.6
Scalley (Utes) = 52.6
Leonhard (Wis) = 71.6

Golding (Bama) = 26
Lanning (UGA) = 39
Lampert (Marsh) = 26

This is where I'll stop, for now.

But I want to post a conclusion of the numbers. But I'll split it up. Into realistic vs fantasy hires.

Realistic choices

I can't make columns, so this is:

scoring d/3rd down d/turnover margin/sacks

Reeves (UAB) = 20.6/4.3/85.3/19.6
Freeman (Cin) = 13/29/45.3/36.6
Scalley (Utes) = 22/15.3/57.6/52.6
Leonhard (Wis) = 16.6/19.3/72/71.6
Lampert (Marsh) = 12.5/38.5/64/26

Fantasy choices

scoring d/3rd down d/turnover margin/sacks

Venables (Clem) = 5/9/18.3/3
Golding (Bama) = 16.5/54/7/26
Lanning (UGA) = 11/25/60/39

I consider Venables, Golding an Lanning all fantasy hires because quite frankly taking the DC job at Florida is either a lateral move or a step-down. IMO for Venables, it's a step-down. You have to andreally have to pay up for any of these three to take this job.

The best options I've seen during this is Reeves (UAB), Freeman (Cin), Scalley (Utes), Leonhard (Wis), Lampert (Marsh)

IMO, the top 3 targets should be, in order, Leonhard, Reeves, Freeman. Scalley is likely a no because of some racial stuff he said in the past.

Freeman is 34, Leonard is 38. Couldn't find an age for Reeves

It's difficult to tell what their recruiting ability is like because none of these programs pull in elite recruits very often.

My choice is Leonard. While Freeman is 4 years younger, the difference for me is I don't think the jump to the SEC would overwhelm Leonard, and it may not be a challenge for the other 2 I listed. But I also love the back-to-back placements being the best 3rd down D in NCAA.

You worry about Lanning and Golding just because Kirby and Saban are such elite defensive minds. It's the same concern someone should have with hiring Johnson away, how much of Trask and this offense is Mullen vs Johnson? That's my concern with Lanning vs Golding.

Venables makes slightly more than Grantham, so I'd like to think, theoretically, that Florida wouldn't shy from offering Venables a contract at 2.5-3.0 a year. It's a lot for a coordinator, but he has the best marks nearly across the board. You're paying for quality.

I said I was done, I lied. I started looking into 247Sports assistants rankings for recruiting. There doesn't seem to be any correlation between coordinator quality and recruiting quality.

ONLY ONE defensive coordinator popped up in the top 25, and that was back in the 2019 class, Golding finished 12th, but he didn't finish in the top 25 the next two classes. So if Mullen is strictly looking for a coordinator thats elite at recruiting, than it gets tricky.

So in this regard, the best recruiters tend to be position guys. Think Larry Johnson for Ohio State who made the top 25 twice, but has ZERO coordinator experience. So do you take a guy like Reeves or Freeman or recruiting specialist position coordinator?

Now obviously, theres always that possibility that if Florida pulls off something like pulling Venables away from Clemson than Venables says "I'm only accepting if you hire x,y,z to help me." And I'm not sure what Mullen would say in a scenario where another DC...

Wants most of the defensive staff at Florida replaced. Thinking more along the lines of DB/S/DL coaches. It seems like C.Rob is respected enough that most would probably keep him.

But thats a rant for another day. Again. I just wanted to dig back into it a little to see whether or not any of these pure defensive coordinators popped up on 247s radar and unless I just overlooked names, I didn't notice anyone but Golding.