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With California now the Global Epicenter Of The COVID-19 Pandemic, I think it’s worth asking why the state with the most stringent restrictions is doing worse than states that have approaches the whole thing more lackadaisically.
Population is definitely a factor. For sure. It makes sense that the most populous state would be worse off than, like, North Dakota or whatever. But I think it’s naïve to attribute the problem entirely to that.
Back in March and April, we made the right call shutting things down and initiating a stay at home order. Unquestionably it helped slow the spread and save lives. Problem is we’re now just doing the same thing with no consideration for how things are different 8 months later.
People have now lived with this for 9 months and it’s become routine. It’s exponentially worse than it was in March, but people are far less concerned about it.
There’s also the issue of the holidays. It’s easy to say “skip Thanksgiving and Christmas,” but for a lot of people that’s just not gonna happen. Gathering with family is hard coded into our society. Especially in communities of color. *Especially* around the holidays.
It feels like no one stopped to consider the actual sociological ramifications of how they’re trying to control the spread and how futile this specific approach was going to be. People are going to gather for the holidays. That’s given. You have to plan around that.
In March we didn’t know fucking anything about the virus except that it was scary. We know a lot more now. For instance, we know that being with people outside is generally safer than being with people indoors.
So what did California do? Restrict people’s ability to gather outdoors. Meanwhile you can’t really restrict what people do in their own homes, so guess where people are gathering? Quantifiably the worst place it can happen.
What if instead of saying “cancel Thanksgiving” there was a huge, statewide effort to pursuance people to have Thanksgiving in public parks, complete with infrastructure to help make that possible?
Would there have still been spread? Absolutely? Would it have been as bad as everyone gathering indoors? Almost certainly not.
I’m also losing my mind over the fact that people have been saying *SINCE MARCH* that this was going to get worse in the winter and we did basically nothing to prepare for that. ICUs are overflowing and *THEY DIDN’T NEED TO BE.* We knew that was coming.
Right now something like 1 in 20 people in L.A. County are infected. My parents called me today to let me know they have it (so far they’re doing okay, thank god). And it feels like it’s as bad as it is because of the state failing to understand its own people.
To be clear: my point is not that we should do nothing, it’s that we should do *smart* things, and the actions the state has taken have been the opposite of smart. Rather than acknowledge that it’s not working, they’re doubling down and blaming people for not trying hard enough.
